• Origin Bancorp, Inc. has reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 results, outlined 2026 net interest income growth guidance in the mid- to high single digits, disclosed significantly lower fourth quarter net charge-offs versus the prior quarter, affirmed a US$0.15 quarterly dividend, and completed a US$27.23 million share repurchase tranche covering 2.47% of its shares.
• An interesting angle for investors is how the combination of improved credit costs, disciplined capital returns, and management’s earnings outlook may reshape expectations for Origin Bancorp’s longer-term profitability profile.
• We will now examine how management’s mid- to high single digit net interest income growth guidance influences Origin Bancorp’s broader investment narrative.

Find 53 companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

What Is Origin Bancorp's Investment Narrative?

To own Origin Bancorp, you need to be comfortable backing a regional bank story that leans on consistent net interest income, stable credit, and disciplined capital return. The latest update supports that picture: management is guiding to mid to high single digit net interest income growth for 2026, has seen net charge-offs fall sharply after the Tricolor-linked spike, and is pairing a long-running US$0.15 quarterly dividend with a completed US$27.23 million buyback equal to 2.47% of shares. With the share price already up strongly in recent months, those signals may reinforce existing optimism rather than create a new short term catalyst, but they arguably soften one of the bigger near-term risks, which was that credit costs might stay elevated.

However, one key risk in the background is still worth paying attention to. Origin Bancorp's shares have been on the rise but are still potentially undervalued by 41%. Find out what it's worth.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The Simply Wall St Community currently has 1 fair value estimate clustered around US$77.25, suggesting some see very large upside. Set that against the recent improvement in credit costs and guidance on net interest income, and you can see why opinions on Origin Bancorp’s future performance may differ widely.

Explore another fair value estimate on Origin Bancorp - why the stock might be worth just $77.25!

Build Your Own Origin Bancorp Narrative

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Origin Bancorp research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Origin Bancorp research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Origin Bancorp's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.