It's shaping up to be a tough period for Oscar Health, Inc. (NYSE:OSCR), which a week ago released some disappointing yearly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at US$12b, but statutory earnings fell catastrophically short, with a loss of US$1.69 some 32% larger than what the analysts had predicted. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Oscar Health's nine analysts is for revenues of US$16.7b in 2026. This would reflect a huge 43% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to improve, with Oscar Health forecast to report a statutory profit of US$0.34 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$12.8b and US$0.14 per share in losses. So we can see that the latest results have sparked a pretty clear upgrade to expectations, with higher revenues expected to lead to profit sooner than previously forecast.

Althoughthe analysts have upgraded their earnings estimates, there was no change to the consensus price target of US$15.40, suggesting that the forecast performance does not have a long term impact on the company's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Oscar Health, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$23.00 and the most bearish at US$10.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 43% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 43% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 3.4% per year. So although Oscar Health is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts now expect Oscar Health to become profitable next year, compared to previous expectations that it would report a loss. Happily, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and are forecasting them to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$15.40, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Oscar Health. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Oscar Health going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

That said, it's still necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Oscar Health , and understanding this should be part of your investment process.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.