• The U.S. House of Representatives previously passed a bill extending Affordable Care Act premium subsidies for three more years, supporting Oscar Health’s individual exchange members by limiting potential premium increases.
• This policy shift directly reinforces Oscar Health’s core ACA-focused business model, reducing prior concerns that expiring subsidies could shrink its addressable market.
• We’ll now examine how the extension of ACA subsidies reshapes Oscar Health’s investment narrative, particularly around membership resilience and margins.

Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

Oscar Health Investment Narrative Recap

To own Oscar Health, you need to believe its tech-centric, ACA-focused model can translate strong membership and revenue growth into sustainable profitability while managing policy and claims volatility. The House vote to extend ACA subsidies directly supports Oscar’s near term membership resilience and pricing power, but it does not remove the key risk around higher morbidity and claims costs, which still threaten margins and the timing of any earnings inflection.

The upcoming February 10, 2026 earnings release now takes on added importance, as it will be the first real checkpoint on how subsidy stability interacts with Oscar’s existing guidance for continued operating losses. Investors will be watching closely for updated commentary on membership trends, medical loss ratios, and any revisions to the 2025 loss expectations, to see whether policy support is flowing through to the line items that matter most for this story.

Yet while policy risk has eased, investors should be aware of how higher market morbidity could still...

Oscar Health's narrative projects $12.4 billion revenue and $245.4 million earnings by 2028. This requires 4.9% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $406.6 million from -$161.2 million today.

Uncover how Oscar Health's forecasts yield a $15.22 fair value, a 12% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Twenty five Simply Wall St Community valuations span from US$11.52 to US$66.00 per share, underscoring how far apart individual views can be. As you weigh those opinions against the ACA subsidy extension’s support for Oscar’s member base and revenue, it is worth considering how sensitive the business still is to shifts in claims costs and policy over time.

Explore 25 other fair value estimates on Oscar Health - why the stock might be worth over 3x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Oscar Health Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Oscar Health research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Oscar Health research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Oscar Health's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.