Policy shifts, analyst commentary and recent share price move

Recent US policy action in Venezuela and the prospect of higher Venezuelan crude flows to Gulf Coast refineries have put Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) on investors’ radar, especially after a 4.5% share price decline in mid January.

That recent mid January share price drop sits against a mixed backdrop, with a 7 day share price return of 7.19%, a 30 day share price return of 5.36%, and a 1 year total shareholder return of 125.72%. This suggests that shorter term momentum is rebuilding after a weaker 90 day spell.

If policy shifts around Venezuelan crude have you rethinking energy exposure, it could also be a good moment to broaden your search with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With Par Pacific trading at US$37.74 against an analyst target of US$45.50 and an indicated intrinsic discount of about 54%, the key question is whether this gap reflects mispricing or whether the market already expects stronger future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 20.3% Undervalued

The most followed narrative puts Par Pacific Holdings' fair value at $47.38, which sits above the last close at $37.74 and frames the recent volatility in a different light.

Operational improvements and near-record throughput in Hawaii, alongside integration and reliability upgrades at acquired assets like Montana, are driving cost efficiencies and improved EBITDA margins, supporting bottom-line growth.

Curious how a company facing declining revenue forecasts can still land on a higher fair value? The answer mixes margin rebuild, earnings reset and a tighter share count story. Want the full playbook behind that $47.38 figure and the discount rate used to get there? The narrative lays out the assumptions step by step.

Result: Fair Value of $47.38 (UNDERVALUED)

However, you still need to weigh risks such as heavy regional exposure in Hawaii and the Western US, as well as the reliance on older refinery assets with higher maintenance needs.

Build Your Own Par Pacific Holdings Narrative

If you see things differently or prefer to run the numbers yourself, you can build your own view in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Par Pacific Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.