PBF Energy (PBF) has been on the minds of investors this week after a series of events that could shape its future trajectory. UBS reaffirmed its Buy stance and bumped up expectations, a move that comes as global energy markets respond to softer Russian refined product exports. At the same time, the company announced a CFO transition, with Joseph Marino stepping in next month to replace the retiring Karen B. Davis. This change ensures continuity at the top during a period of shifting industry dynamics. The past year has seen PBF Energy’s stock steadily gain ground, most recently hitting a new 52-week high. Momentum has built in recent months, with a 19% jump over the past month and more than 50% growth in the latest quarter. This run has outpaced long-term averages and suggests that investors are rewarding both the broader sector tailwinds and PBF’s operational changes. Given all this, the key question is whether the market is recognizing real future value here, or if the current price has already baked in everything PBF Energy can deliver. What do you think, is there more upside to come?

Most Popular Narrative: 36.9% Overvalued

The prevailing analysis suggests that PBF Energy is trading well above its estimated fair value, with current prices exceeding what the most widely followed narrative deems justified based on future prospects and risks.

Net global demand for refined products is expected to exceed net refining capacity additions in the coming years. Driven by ongoing population growth and underinvestment in new refining capacity outside North America, this tightening supply backdrop should support strong utilization, pricing power, and higher revenues for efficient U.S. refiners like PBF.

Think analysts are just being conservative? Their story relies on a bold earnings comeback, surging revenues, and a profit margin shift that would surprise skeptics. Want to see what numbers power this valuation? How close is PBF to a dramatic turnaround?

Result: Fair Value of $23.83 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent operational complications at key facilities and accelerating trends toward electrification could quickly undermine the bullish case for PBF Energy.

Find out about the key risks to this PBF Energy narrative.

Another View: What Does Our DCF Say?

The SWS DCF model offers a different perspective, suggesting PBF may be trading above its estimated fair value even though some multiples indicate otherwise. Could this mean the market is overlooking hidden risks?

Stay updated when valuation signals shift by adding PBF Energy to your watchlist or portfolio. Alternatively, explore our screener to discover other companies that fit your criteria.

Build Your Own PBF Energy Narrative

If you have a different take or prefer diving into the numbers firsthand, you can quickly craft your own analysis in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your PBF Energy research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.