PriceSmart (PSMT) has drawn fresh attention after reporting first quarter results that paired higher revenue and net income with ongoing investments in warehouse expansion, supply chain projects, and digital membership services across its club network.

Those first quarter numbers have arrived after a strong run in the shares, with a 30 day share price return of 13.0% and a 1 year total shareholder return of 63.39%. This suggests momentum has been building as investors reassess PriceSmart’s growth plans and risk profile.

If PriceSmart’s club model has caught your attention, this could be a good moment to see what else is trending in retail and consumer names through fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With the share price near US$140.86 after a 63.39% 1 year total return, and the average analyst price target close by at US$143, the key question is whether PriceSmart is still mispriced or if the market already reflects its future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 14.2% Overvalued

The most followed narrative currently points to a fair value of about US$123.33 per share, which sits below PriceSmart's last close of US$140.86 and frames the recent share price strength against more conservative long term assumptions.

The recently opened clubs in high-growth regions and concrete plans for new locations in untapped cities within existing markets, as well as exploration of Chile, a country with a strong, stable middle class, signal a club rollout strategy that is expected to widen PriceSmart's addressable market and support revenue growth and geographical diversification.

Curious how that club expansion story gets translated into projected revenue, margin shifts, and a lower future P/E multiple than today? The full narrative lays out how growth, profitability and the chosen discount rate all connect to that fair value line. Want to see which assumptions have to hold for the current price gap to close?

Result: Fair Value of $123.33 (OVERVALUED)

However, currency and liquidity pressures in markets like Trinidad, along with rising tech and logistics spending, could quickly challenge the margin and earnings path baked into this story.

Build Your Own PriceSmart Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to stress test these assumptions yourself, you can rebuild the numbers and craft your own view in just a few minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your PriceSmart research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If PriceSmart has you thinking more seriously about where you put your money next, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist and pressure test your thinking across sectors.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.