The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Principal Financial Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:PFG), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its third-quarter results last week. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at US$3.9b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by an incredible 57%, coming in at just US$0.95 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Principal Financial Group's nine analysts is for revenues of US$17.2b in 2026. This would reflect a decent 9.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to leap 33% to US$9.47. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$17.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.45 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at US$87.92. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Principal Financial Group at US$103 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$74.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Principal Financial Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Principal Financial Group's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 7.2% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 1.1% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 5.4% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Principal Financial Group to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$87.92, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Principal Financial Group analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.