What are the early trends we should look for to identify a stock that could multiply in value over the long term? Firstly, we'd want to identify a growing return on capital employed (ROCE) and then alongside that, an ever-increasing base of capital employed. Basically this means that a company has profitable initiatives that it can continue to reinvest in, which is a trait of a compounding machine. So, when we ran our eye over Timken's (NYSE:TKR) trend of ROCE, we liked what we saw.

What Is Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)?

For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Timken:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.10 = US$579m ÷ (US$6.6b - US$832m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2025).

Thus, Timken has an ROCE of 10%. That's a relatively normal return on capital, and it's around the 11% generated by the Machinery industry.

In the above chart we have measured Timken's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for Timken .

What Does the ROCE Trend For Timken Tell Us?

While the returns on capital are good, they haven't moved much. Over the past five years, ROCE has remained relatively flat at around 10% and the business has deployed 36% more capital into its operations. Since 10% is a moderate ROCE though, it's good to see a business can continue to reinvest at these decent rates of return. Over long periods of time, returns like these might not be too exciting, but with consistency they can pay off in terms of share price returns.

Our Take On Timken's ROCE

The main thing to remember is that Timken has proven its ability to continually reinvest at respectable rates of return. Therefore it's no surprise that shareholders have earned a respectable 74% return if they held over the last five years. So even though the stock might be more "expensive" than it was before, we think the strong fundamentals warrant this stock for further research.

One more thing to note, we've identified 1 warning sign with Timken and understanding it should be part of your investment process.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.