• In February 2026, Robinhood Markets, Inc. reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of US$1,283 million, up from US$1,014 million a year earlier, while quarterly net income fell to US$605 million from US$916 million, even as the company continued share repurchases and highlighted growth across multiple product lines.
• Behind the headline miss on revenue expectations, Robinhood underscored that 11 of its products now each generate over US$100 million in annualized revenue, with a forthcoming credit card and expanding banking and prediction market offerings intended to lessen its reliance on volatile crypto and options trading activity.
• We’ll now examine how weaker-than-expected Q4 results, particularly the sharp drop in crypto transaction revenue, may reshape Robinhood’s investment narrative.

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Robinhood Markets Investment Narrative Recap

To own Robinhood today, you need to believe it can turn a volatile, trading-heavy platform into a broader financial ecosystem with steadier, recurring revenue. The Q4 2025 miss and 38% drop in crypto transaction revenue sharpen the focus on that shift, reinforcing the near term catalyst of product diversification and highlighting the key risk that weakness in speculative trading, plus fewer monthly active users, could weigh on results if new products do not ramp fast enough.

In that context, management’s update that 11 products now each generate over US$100 million in annualized revenue, with a planned credit card and expanding banking and prediction market offerings, looks especially relevant. It suggests more of Robinhood’s growth is coming from beyond pure crypto and options trading, which matters if crypto activity stays muted and options take rates remain under pressure while investors watch for more stable revenue drivers to develop.

Yet beneath the excitement around prediction markets and new products, the sharp drop in crypto revenue is a reminder investors should be aware of...

Robinhood Markets’ narrative projects $5.3 billion revenue and $1.8 billion earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Robinhood Markets' forecasts yield a $132.19 fair value, a 74% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the most optimistic analysts were penciling in revenue of about US$8.2 billion and earnings near US$3.0 billion by 2028, but Q4’s crypto-driven shortfall shows how uncertain that path is, especially if regulatory pressure on payment for order flow or tokenized assets intensifies.

Explore 38 other fair value estimates on Robinhood Markets - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Robinhood Markets Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Robinhood Markets research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Robinhood Markets research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Robinhood Markets' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.