RTX has just delivered its 500th ESSM Block 2 missile to the U.S. Navy, signed a $1.7 billion radar contract, and captured a $578.6 million Stinger missile award. These moves highlight the company’s growing momentum in defense.

Those major contract wins, in addition to recent ESSM missile deliveries and next-generation radar upgrades, have helped turn heads this year. RTX’s share price has jumped almost 45% year to date, and its growing contract backlog and steady dividend growth are keeping long-term total shareholder return on a positive trajectory. Overall, momentum is building as defense and aerospace demand accelerates.

Curious to see what other innovators are making waves in aerospace and defense? Check out the leading names with See the full list for free.

With so much optimism surrounding recent headline-making contracts and soaring demand for advanced defense technology, investors are left to consider the real value behind RTX’s meteoric stock run. Is there still unrealized upside here, or has the market already factored in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: Fairly Valued

RTX’s share price of $166.63 is just above the narrative’s fair value estimate of $164.58. The market’s pricing aligns closely with analyst expectations, suggesting a delicate balance between optimism and caution.

Robust and growing backlog, highlighted by a 1.86 quarter book-to-bill ratio, $236 billion backlog (up 15% year-over-year), and major new international contracts (e.g., EU, MENA, Asia-Pacific) indicate RTX is well positioned to benefit from sustained increases in global defense spending and heightened geopolitical tensions. This provides strong visibility for future revenue growth.

Want to know how record-breaking order books and bullish sector forecasts fueled this price target? The narrative hinges on global defense tailwinds and rising international demand, along with some bold profit margin bets. Curious what aggressive analyst numbers built this fair value? The full story reveals the building blocks behind this calculation.

Result: Fair Value of $164.58 (ABOUT RIGHT)

However, ongoing tariff volatility and potential jet engine cost overruns could still challenge RTX’s outlook. These factors make downside risks worth watching in the quarters ahead.

Build Your Own RTX Narrative

If the consensus doesn’t fit your view or you want a deeper dive into the numbers, you can craft your own RTX story in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your RTX research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for More Investment Ideas?

Smart investors always scan every corner of the market for the next big opportunity. Why let those chances pass by? Take control and get ahead with these high-potential themes:

• Tap into ongoing digital disruption by checking out these 24 AI penny stocks, which are rewriting the rules in artificial intelligence and automation.
• Boost your income strategy instantly with these 19 dividend stocks with yields > 3%, offering healthy yields and consistent payout records to strengthen your portfolio’s cash flow.
• Capitalize on undervalued opportunities as you browse these 909 undervalued stocks based on cash flows to spot quality stocks that the market may be overlooking right now.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.