Russian rouble slides on cheaper oil, recession fears

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- The Russian rouble slid against the U.S. dollar on Monday, responding to a fall in oil prices as escalating trade tensions between the United States and China stoked fears of a recession that would reduce demand for crude.

By 0740 GMT, the rouble was down 2.1% at 86.30 against the dollar in the over-the-counter market. The Russian currency is still up about 24% against the dollar this year, mostly on expectations of easing geopolitical tensions.

"A collapse in oil prices may lead to a weakening of the rouble, although not immediately, and only if the low price per barrel persists for a long time," BCS brokerage analysts said.

Prices for oil, Russia's main export commodity, fell to the lowest level since April 2021.

The Russian central bank said last week that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff hikes may slow down world economic growth and fuel inflation, while oil prices could be lower than forecast for several years as a result of reduced global demand.

Analysts said that increased sales of foreign currency by the central bank, which took effect on Monday, provided support for the Russian currency.

Russia's economy, mainly insulated from Western markets by sanctions, has escaped immediate damage from U.S. tariffs but the Kremlin said on April 4 it needs to take extra measures to minimise the impact of resulting market turbulence.

Against the Chinese yuan, the most traded foreign currency in Russia, the rouble was also down 0.5% at 11.77 on the Moscow Stock Exchange.


(Reporting by Gleb Bryanski
Editing by Gareth Jones)

((gleb.bryanski@thomsonreuters.com;))

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