• In its fourth-quarter 2025 investor letter, Praetorian Capital highlighted The St. Joe Company’s roughly 167,000 acres of Florida Panhandle land and argued the business could grow revenue and earnings rapidly while trading at what it views as an appealing Adjusted Funds from Operations multiple.
• This commentary effectively frames St. Joe as a land-rich owner where investors may be paying for cash flow while receiving significant asset value at little apparent cost.
• We’ll now examine how Praetorian Capital’s focus on St. Joe’s extensive Florida Panhandle land holdings shapes the company’s broader investment narrative.

Find 55 companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

What Is St. Joe's Investment Narrative?

To own St. Joe, you need to believe its vast Florida Panhandle land bank can keep converting into profitable, recurring cash flows while supporting a relatively rich earnings multiple and active capital returns. The Praetorian Capital letter reinforces that narrative by spotlighting the roughly 167,000 acres and the focus on Adjusted Funds from Operations, which may draw more attention to St. Joe’s real estate and hospitality pipeline as a near term catalyst, especially with Q4 2025 results due on February 25. That extra spotlight does not fundamentally change the biggest risks, though it can sharpen them: high leverage still matters if conditions soften, and the share price’s strong one year run leaves less room for disappointment if upcoming earnings or land monetization pace underwhelm expectations.

But against that land rich story sits a debt load that investors cannot ignore. Despite retreating, St. Joe's shares might still be trading 20% above their fair value. Discover the potential downside here.

Exploring Other Perspectives

With a single US$87.35 per share fair value from the Simply Wall St Community, you are seeing one concentrated retail view rather than a broad spread of opinions. Set that beside the heightened focus on St. Joe’s debt and execution risk and it becomes even more important to compare multiple perspectives before deciding how the current price reflects the company’s prospects.

Explore another fair value estimate on St. Joe - why the stock might be worth as much as 24% more than the current price!

Decide For Yourself

Don't just follow the ticker - dig into the data and build a conviction that's truly your own.

• A great starting point for your St. Joe research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free St. Joe research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate St. Joe's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.