Tesla Motors, Inc.(TSLA.US) is expected to release its fourth-quarter and full-year delivery and production report on January 2nd. The market generally expects that the delivery figures for the fourth quarter will exceed the company’s historical high of 484,507 units in the same period last year.

Analysts estimate that Tesla will deliver about 506,763 vehicles in the fourth quarter. Of these, 476,398 units are expected to be Model 3/Model Y deliveries, with the remaining deliveries of other models amounting to 30,365 units.

Improvements in demand in key markets (especially China) have contributed to Tesla’s strong delivery channels. Tesla has also provided incentives in the US and international markets, including zero-interest financing policies for new purchases of Model 3 and Model Y.

However, to exceed the total annual delivery target of over 1.8 million units for 2023, Tesla needs to deliver at least about 515,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter. Therefore, the market’s expectation of 506,763 units means that Tesla’s global car deliveries in 2024 will reach 1,801,709 units, less than the 1,808,581 units in 2023, missing the company’s latest financial report’s “slight growth” expectation for the full year. Looking ahead, analysts remain confident in Tesla’s delivery growth for 2025 and expect that the electric vehicle giant will deliver over 2 million units this year, which surpasses the target Mr. Musk initially set for 2023. Typically, Tesla does not provide specific delivery guidance for the coming year in its fourth-quarter delivery report, but the earnings call later in January might include some forecasts.