• Texas Pacific Land Corporation announced in late 2025 that it will invest US$50 million and grant water rights in a partnership with Bolt Data & Energy to build large-scale data center campuses on its West Texas acreage.
• This move extends TPL’s business beyond oil and gas royalties toward AI-linked digital infrastructure, while continued share accumulation by major holder Horizon Kinetics suggests strong internal confidence in this new direction.
• We’ll now examine how TPL’s push into AI-focused data centers could reshape the company’s investment narrative and long-term risk profile.

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Texas Pacific Land Investment Narrative Recap

To own Texas Pacific Land, you have to believe its Permian royalty and water businesses can keep generating attractive cash flows while new uses of its vast land and water, like data centers, take root. The Bolt Data & Energy partnership is emerging as the key near term catalyst, but the biggest risk remains execution and returns on this US$50,000,000 AI infrastructure push relative to TPL’s already profitable, asset light core operations.

Among recent announcements, the data center partnership with Bolt Data & Energy, co founded by Eric Schmidt, is most relevant. It directly ties TPL’s surface and water footprint to AI focused infrastructure and has helped drive a 44% year to date share price move despite three straight earnings misses. How quickly this agreement converts into contracted power, water and lease like revenues will likely shape how investors reassess both upside potential and execution risk.

Yet behind the excitement around AI and data centers, investors should be aware that the real test will be whether these early projects avoid becoming...

Texas Pacific Land's narrative projects $895.3 million revenue and $610.3 million earnings by 2028. This requires 7.2% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $150 million from $460.2 million today.

Uncover how Texas Pacific Land's forecasts yield a $280.83 fair value, a 35% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Before this data center news, the most pessimistic analysts already assumed TPL would still reach about US$1.1 billion of revenue and US$681.6 million of earnings by 2028, yet worried that ambitious power and data investments might not turn into durable contracts, which shows how differently you and other shareholders might weigh the same risks and why it can be useful to explore several viewpoints before deciding what this new partnership could mean.

Explore 14 other fair value estimates on Texas Pacific Land - why the stock might be worth 35% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Texas Pacific Land Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Texas Pacific Land research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Texas Pacific Land research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Texas Pacific Land's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.