MarineMax, Inc. (NYSE:HZO) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 4.0% to US$27.03 in the week after its latest quarterly results. Revenues of US$505m beat expectations by a respectable 4.7%, although statutory losses per share increased. MarineMax lost US$0.36, which was 200% more than what the analysts had included in their models. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, MarineMax's eight analysts currently expect revenues in 2026 to be US$2.38b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. MarineMax is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.65 per share. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$2.34b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.63 in 2026. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on MarineMax's earnings potential following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$31.33, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values MarineMax at US$35.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$29.00. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that MarineMax's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 2.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 4.8% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.2% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that MarineMax is also expected to grow slower than other industry participants.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around MarineMax's earnings potential next year. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for MarineMax going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.