TPG (TPG) closed out FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of US$1.5 billion and basic EPS of US$0.50, while trailing twelve month revenue reached US$4.7 billion and EPS came in at US$1.21. Over the last few quarters, revenue has moved from US$855.4 million in Q3 2024 to US$1.1 billion in Q4 2024, then to US$1.0 billion in Q1 2025, US$920.5 million in Q2 2025, and US$1.2 billion in Q3 2025, with quarterly EPS ranging from roughly flat at US$0.00 in Q2 2025 to US$0.50 in Q4 2025. With analysts expecting earnings growth but also flagging forecast revenue declines and relatively weak dividend coverage, this latest print puts the focus squarely on how durable TPG’s margins really are.

See our full analysis for TPG.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to see how this earnings profile lines up with the prevailing narratives around TPG’s growth potential, risks, and income appeal in the market conversation.

US$184.6 million profit over the last year

• On a trailing twelve month basis, TPG reported net income of US$184.6 million on US$4.7 billion of revenue, giving you a clearer sense of how the full year stacks up beyond a single quarter.
• What stands out for a bullish view is that this profit comes after earlier periods of near break even, with trailing EPS at US$1.21 and quarterly EPS moving from roughly flat in early FY 2025 to US$0.50 in Q4, which heavily supports the idea that the business has moved into a more profitable phase.
  • Supporters can point to net income rising from US$61.5 million on US$4.3 billion of trailing revenue at Q3 to US$184.6 million on US$4.7 billion by Q4 as evidence that profitability has become more meaningful alongside a larger revenue base.
  • At the same time, the path from very small quarterly net income figures like US$0.1 million in Q2 FY 2025 to US$77.1 million in Q4 shows how sensitive results can be, which is something bullish investors need to keep in mind when they talk about consistent earnings strength.

AUM rises to about US$303 billion

• Assets under management moved from US$261.3 billion at the start of Q3 FY 2025 to US$303.0 billion at the end of Q4, with net inflows of US$11.2 billion in Q4 on top of US$8.3 billion in Q3, which is a key volume driver for fee based businesses like TPG.
• What is interesting for a bullish argument is that this AUM build and the US$11.2 billion of Q4 inflows sit alongside forecasts for annual earnings growth of 38.6%, which strongly supports the idea that higher fee earning assets are feeding into the earnings outlook even as analysts also expect revenue to decline by 27.3% per year over the next three years.
  • The jump in AUM from US$286.4 billion at the start of Q4 to US$303.0 billion at the end, combined with rising trailing net income to US$184.6 million, gives bulls a concrete link between asset scale and profit, even though forecast revenue trends point the other way.
  • Investors who lean bullish may treat the recent quarters where revenue ranged between about US$855.4 million and US$1.5 billion as evidence that fees and performance income can be lumpy, so they focus more on the growing AUM base when thinking about the 38.6% forecast earnings growth figure.

If you want to see how different investors join these dots on growth, margins, and fees, have a look at 📊 Read the full TPG Consensus Narrative..

High 45.6x P/E with mixed signals

• TPG trades on a trailing P/E of 45.6x compared with 22.9x for the US Capital Markets industry and 41.2x for peers, while analysts’ average price target of US$71.43 sits above the current share price of US$55.02 and the DCF fair value of US$53.55, which shows how rich the shares are versus both fundamentals and sector benchmarks.
• Skeptical, more bearish takes focus on this high valuation together with expectations for 27.3% annual revenue declines over the next three years and weak dividend coverage at a 3.16% yield, arguing that the 45.6x P/E leaves little room if the 38.6% forecast earnings growth does not materialise as modeled.
  • Critics highlight that paying 45.6x trailing earnings for a business where revenue is expected to fall contrasts with industry names on 22.9x, especially when the DCF fair value of US$53.55 sits below the current US$55.02 share price.
  • They also point out that while the dividend yield of 3.16% looks appealing at first glance, the comment that coverage by earnings is weak means income focused holders are relying on that 38.6% earnings growth forecast to shore up payouts over time.

Bears who see

Next Steps

Don't just look at this quarter; the real story is in the long-term trend. We've done an in-depth analysis on TPG's growth and its valuation to see if today's price is a bargain. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio now so you don't miss the next big move.

Explore Alternatives

For all the talk about rising AUM and earnings forecasts, TPG still faces a rich 45.6x P/E, forecast revenue declines, and weak dividend coverage at a 3.16% yield.

If that mix of high valuation and fragile income stream makes you cautious, take a look at our 14 dividend fortresses to zero in on companies where yields and coverage look more robust right now.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.