United States Antimony (NYSEAM:UAMY) is drawing fresh attention after landing a five-year, $245 million contract to supply antimony metal ingots to the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency. The first $10 million order is already in motion.

Momentum has clearly picked up for United States Antimony, with a 22% single-day surge recently putting it on many investors’ radars. A string of positive catalysts, from the high-profile Defense Logistics Agency contract to CEO Gary Evans’ share purchase and index inclusions, have all contributed to growing optimism. Over the past year, the company has delivered a total shareholder return of over 9%, and its longer-term track record points to improving sentiment as U.S. demand for critical minerals continues to rise.

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But with shares rallying and optimism high, investors are left to wonder if United States Antimony remains undervalued after these developments, or if the market has already priced in all of the potential ahead.

Most Popular Narrative: 20.2% Overvalued

United States Antimony's most followed narrative sees its fair value at $6.25, notably below the last close of $7.51. This sets the stage for debates about whether recent excitement is backed by future fundamentals or has pushed valuations ahead of earnings reality.

Vertical integration, resource diversification, and institutional engagement could boost revenue potential, valuation, and support strong end-market demand amid secular industry tailwinds.

Want to know how bold future earnings and soaring projected revenue growth are powering such an ambitious fair value? This narrative hinges on big operational expansion and a potential leap in margins. See the full breakdown to find out the precise numbers behind the story.

Result: Fair Value of $6.25 (OVERVALUED)

However, permitting delays at key mining sites and environmental opposition remain significant threats that could undermine United States Antimony’s ambitious growth outlook.

Another View: Discounted Cash Flow Tells a Different Story

Looking through the lens of the SWS DCF model, United States Antimony’s current share price of $7.51 appears well below our calculated fair value of $35.62. This suggests the stock may be deeply undervalued, which stands in sharp contrast to the earlier narrative of overvaluation based on current market multiples. Could the market be missing the long-term upside?

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out United States Antimony for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own United States Antimony Narrative

If you’re eager to dig deeper or see the numbers from your own perspective, you can craft your personal narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your United States Antimony research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.