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UPDATE 1-US natgas futures jump 5% on forecasts for seasonally cold weather in late January
U.S. Global Investors, Inc. Class A -1.61%
U.S. Global Investors, Inc. Class A GROW | 2.45 | -1.61% |
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
NEW YORK, Jan 7 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 5% on Wednesday on a decline in output and forecasts for cooler weather and more heating demand later in January.
Front-month gas futures for February delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 17.5 cents, or 5.2%, to settle at $3.525 per million British thermal units. On Tuesday, the contract closed at its lowest price since October 28.
Looking ahead, however, the 12-month futures strip NG12Mst fell to $3.46 per mmBtu, its lowest price since December 2024.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Financial firm LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states has fallen to 109.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in January, down from a monthly record high of 109.7 bcfd in December.
On a daily basis, output was on track to drop to a three-week low of around 108.1 bcfd on Wednesday due in part to declines in Arkansas and Texas, down from 108.5 bcfd on Tuesday and a daily record high of 111.1 bcfd on December 21, according to LSEG data.
Despite a slight cooldown in the forecasts, meteorologists projected weather across the country would remain mostly warmer than normal through January 22, keeping the amount of gas needed to heat homes and businesses lower than usual for this time of year.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 131.2 bcfd this week to 132.4 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was higher than LSEG's outlook on Tuesday.
Average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants have risen to 18.6 bcfd so far in January, up from a monthly record high of 18.5 bcfd in December.
The U.S. became the world's biggest LNG exporter in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar, as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Gas was trading around $10 per mmBtu at both the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 benchmark in Europe and the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 benchmark in Asia. NG/EU
Global prices have declined to multi-month lows over the past month or so on hopes that peace talks over Ukraine could result in the lifting of sanctions against Moscow. Such a development could allow Russia, the world's second-biggest gas producer behind the U.S., to export more fuel in the future.
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Week ended Jan 2 Forecast |
Week ended Dec 26 Actual |
Year ago |
Five-year average (2021-2025) Jan 2 |
|
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
-114 |
-38 |
-51 |
-92 |
|
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
3,261 |
3,375 |
3,379 |
3,225 |
|
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+1.1% |
+1.7% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
3.48 |
3.35 |
3.72 |
3.62 |
3.79 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
9.88 |
9.60 |
14.67 |
11.94 |
18.51 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
9.57 |
9.54 |
14.16 |
12.24 |
18.12 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
396 |
380 |
506 |
442 |
460 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
4 |
4 |
0 |
3 |
3 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
400 |
384 |
506 |
445 |
463 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2021-2025) Average for Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
|
|
|
|
|
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.9 |
109.0 |
109.3 |
102.5 |
98.6 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
10.6 |
10.2 |
9.1 |
N/A |
9.6 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply |
120.5 |
119.3 |
118.3 |
N/A |
108.3 |
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|
U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
|
|
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|
U.S. Exports to Canada |
4.1 |
3.9 |
3.8 |
N/A |
2.9 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
5.5 |
5.7 |
5.7 |
N/A |
5.8 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
18.8 |
18.4 |
17.9 |
15.0 |
12.8 |
U.S. Commercial |
16.9 |
14.9 |
15.3 |
20.4 |
17.3 |
U.S. Residential |
28.1 |
24.2 |
25.2 |
35.0 |
29.9 |
U.S. Power Plant |
30.9 |
31.0 |
30.9 |
37.7 |
32.5 |
U.S. Industrial |
25.4 |
24.9 |
25.2 |
26.8 |
26.0 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.2 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.9 |
2.7 |
2.8 |
2.9 |
4.4 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
109.7 |
103.2 |
105.1 |
128.3 |
115.5 |
Total U.S. Demand |
138.1 |
131.2 |
132.4 |
N/A |
137.0 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
100 |
99 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
100 |
99 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
105 |
104 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended Jan 9 |
Week ended Jan 2 |
2025 |
2024 |
2023 |
Wind |
12 |
13 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
Solar |
4 |
4 |
6 |
5 |
4 |
Hydro |
7 |
7 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
36 |
36 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
Coal |
19 |
18 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
Nuclear |
21 |
21 |
18 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
2.85 |
2.82 |
4.13 |
3.52 |
3.72 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
2.62 |
2.54 |
8.77 |
3.53 |
3.56 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
2.38 |
2.32 |
3.87 |
3.42 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
2.51 |
2.41 |
3.74 |
2.79 |
2.96 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
2.58 |
2.58 |
3.93 |
3.23 |
3.60 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
6.90 |
9.95 |
15.67 |
6.08 |
5.04 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
3.11 |
3.18 |
4.49 |
3.60 |
5.71 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
0.10 |
-1.92 |
3.27 |
1.15 |
2.88 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
1.72 |
1.88 |
1.22 |
1.13 |
2.13 |
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ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2025 |
Five-Year Average (2021-2025) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
81.25 |
106.85 |
147.88 |
77.61 |
61.79 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
32.58 |
37.49 |
75.11 |
60.23 |
54.47 |
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX |
23.16 |
20.66 |
52.79 |
44.81 |
68.96 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
22.00 |
27.28 |
44.47 |
34.82 |
59.94 |
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX |
25.06 |
34.49 |
39.98 |
28.44 |
53.02 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino; Editing by Paul Simao and David Gregorio)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))
