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UPDATE 1-US natural gas futures fall 3% on record output despite cold forecast
U.S. Global Investors, Inc. Class A -1.62%
Exxon Mobil Corporation -0.60%
U.S. Global Investors, Inc. Class A GROW | 2.43 | -1.62% |
Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM | 118.82 | -0.60% |
Adds latest prices
By Scott DiSavino
Nov 25 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures fell about 3% to a one-week low on Tuesday on record output, ample amounts of gas in storage, contract expiry, and lower gas prices in Europe on Ukraine peace talks.
On its last day as the front-month, gas futures for December delivery NGc1 on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 12.5 cents, or 2.7%, to settle at $4.424 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), their lowest close since November 18.
Futures for January 2026 NGF26, which will soon be the front-month, were down about 4.3% at $4.47 per mmBtu.
Prices dropped despite record gas flows to liquefied natural gas export plants and forecasts of colder weather and higher demand than previously expected over the next two weeks.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
LSEG said average gas output in the Lower 48 states had risen to 109.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far this month, up from 107.4 bcfd in October and a record monthly high of 108.3 bcfd in August.
On a daily basis, output had climbed to a record 111.2 bcfd on November 24, topping the previous record daily peak of 110.8 bcfd on November 23.
Record output this year has allowed energy companies to stockpile more gas than usual, with about 5% more gas in storage than is normal for this time of year. EIA/GAS NGAS/POLL
Meteorologists forecast temperatures across the country will remain mostly colder than normal through December 10.
LSEG projected average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, would rise from 122.0 bcfd this week to 140.4 bcfd next week. Those forecasts were higher than LSEG's outlook on Monday.
Average gas flows to the eight big LNG export plants operating in the U.S. have risen to 18.0 bcfd so far this month, up from a record 16.6 bcfd in October.
On a daily basis, LNG export feedgas was on track to reach 18.7 bcfd on Tuesday, up from the current all-time daily high of 18.6 bcfd on November 15.
In other LNG news, the Imsaikah LNG vessel was moving across the Caribbean Sea on its way to Exxon Mobil/QatarEnergy's XOM.N 2.4 bcfd Golden Pass LNG export plant under construction in Texas, according to LSEG data and analyst comments.
The ship, expected to arrive at Golden Pass around November 29, is carrying LNG from Qatar that traders and analysts say will be used to cool equipment as part of the commissioning of the plant. The facility is expected to start producing LNG this year or early next year.
The U.S.became the world's biggest LNG producer in 2023, surpassing Australia and Qatar as surging global prices fed demand for more exports, due in part to supply disruptions and sanctions linked to Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Around the world, gas prices fell to a 16-month low near $10 per mmBtu at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 in Europe on negotiations over a potential peace plan for Russia and Ukraine, while prices at the Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 in Asia held around a one-week low of $11. NG/EU
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Week ended Nov 21 Forecast |
Week ended Nov 14 Actual |
Year ago Nov 21 |
Five-year average Nov 21 |
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U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): |
-2 |
-14 |
-2 |
-25 |
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U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): |
3,944 |
3,946 |
3,967 |
3,775 |
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U.S. total storage versus 5-year average |
+4.5% |
+3.8% |
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Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2024 |
Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NGc1 |
4.42 |
4.55 |
2.98 |
2.41 |
3.52 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1 |
10.02 |
10.05 |
13.89 |
10.95 |
15.47 |
Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1 |
11.25 |
11.47 |
14.12 |
11.89 |
15.23 |
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LSEG U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) Heating, Cooling and Total Degree Days |
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Two-Week Total Forecast |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
Prior Year |
10-Year Norm |
30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS Heating Degree Days (HDD) |
395 |
365 |
372 |
337 |
358 |
U.S. GFS Cooling Degree Days (CDD) |
6 |
9 |
3 |
7 |
6 |
U.S. GFS Total Degree Days (TDD) |
401 |
374 |
375 |
344 |
364 |
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LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts |
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Prior Week |
Current Week |
Next Week |
This Week Last Year |
Five-Year (2020-2024) Average For Month |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) |
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|
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production |
109.5 |
110.5 |
110.2 |
103.6 |
99.2 |
U.S. Imports from Canada |
8.7 |
8.7 |
8.9 |
N/A |
8.1 |
U.S. LNG Imports |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Total U.S. Supply |
118.2 |
119.2 |
119.1 |
N/A |
107.3 |
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U.S. Demand (bcfd) |
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U.S. Exports to Canada |
3.0 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
N/A |
2.9 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico |
6.0 |
6.2 |
6.2 |
N/A |
5.7 |
U.S. LNG Export Feedgas |
18.3 |
18.6 |
18.6 |
13.9 |
12.2 |
U.S. Commercial |
10.9 |
12.1 |
17.3 |
13.1 |
11.0 |
U.S. Residential |
16.3 |
18.8 |
28.8 |
20.7 |
15.7 |
U.S. Power Plant |
32.3 |
30.9 |
32.0 |
30.9 |
30.0 |
U.S. Industrial |
23.5 |
24.1 |
25.9 |
24.6 |
24.2 |
U.S. Plant Fuel |
5.4 |
5.5 |
5.4 |
5.4 |
5.3 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution |
2.4 |
2.5 |
3.0 |
2.4 |
3.3 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
0.2 |
Total U.S. Consumption |
91.0 |
94.0 |
112.6 |
97.2 |
89.7 |
Total U.S. Demand |
118.3 |
122.0 |
140.4 |
N/A |
110.5 |
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N/A = Not Available |
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U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam (Fiscal year ending Sep 30) |
2026 Current Day % of Normal Forecast |
2026 Prior Day % of Normal Forecast |
2025 % of Normal Actual |
2024 % of Normal Actual |
2023 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep |
87 |
90 |
76 |
74 |
83 |
Jan-Jul |
83 |
85 |
78 |
76 |
77 |
Oct-Sep |
85 |
86 |
80 |
77 |
76 |
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U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA |
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Week ended Nov 21 |
Week ended Nov 14 |
2024 |
2023 |
2022 |
Wind |
10 |
11 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
Solar |
4 |
4 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
Hydro |
5 |
5 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
Other |
1 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
Petroleum |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Natural Gas |
40 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
38 |
Coal |
18 |
17 |
16 |
17 |
21 |
Nuclear |
21 |
20 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
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SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2024 |
Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL |
4.15 |
4.13 |
2.10 |
2.19 |
3.49 |
Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL |
3.80 |
3.69 |
1.99 |
1.98 |
3.29 |
PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL |
4.32 |
4.36 |
3.29 |
3.04 |
5.47 |
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL |
3.61 |
3.67 |
1.83 |
1.68 |
2.77 |
Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL |
3.76 |
3.81 |
1.98 |
2.00 |
3.41 |
Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL |
4.46 |
4.78 |
2.70 |
2.88 |
4.27 |
SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL |
4.07 |
4.02 |
2.55 |
2.47 |
5.92 |
Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL |
1.00 |
0.91 |
0.33 |
0.77 |
2.91 |
AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL |
2.21 |
1.81 |
0.98 |
0.96 |
2.28 |
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ICE U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) |
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Hub |
Current Day |
Prior Day |
This Month Last Year |
Prior Year Average 2024 |
Five-Year Average (2019-2023) |
New England E-NEPLMHP-IDX |
79.84 |
71.00 |
44.71 |
47.35 |
48.44 |
PJM West E-PJWHRTP-IX |
46.83 |
51.54 |
35.99 |
41.98 |
45.33 |
Mid C W-MIDCP-IDX |
55.46 |
41.99 |
37.13 |
63.89 |
61.73 |
Palo Verde W-PVP-IDX |
35.00 |
28.18 |
29.23 |
39.50 |
62.42 |
SP-15 W-SP15-IDX |
37.41 |
36.95 |
30.01 |
31.30 |
58.87 |
(Reporting by Scott DiSavino in New York. Editing by Mark Potter and Nick Zieminski)
((scott.disavino@thomsonreuters.com; +1 332 219 1922; Reuters Messaging: scott.disavino.thomsonreuters.com@reuters.net/))
