Virtu Financial (VIRT) closed out FY 2025 with Q4 revenue of US$783.0 million and basic EPS of US$1.65, alongside trailing twelve month revenue of about US$2.8 billion and EPS of US$5.50 that reflect a 79.9% earnings increase over the past year despite a 15.5% annual decline over five years. The company has seen revenue move from US$2.2 billion and EPS of US$2.98 on a trailing basis at the end of 2024 to US$2.8 billion and EPS of US$5.50 by Q4 2025, while net margin has lifted from 11.7% to 16.5%. This sets up a results season where investors are weighing higher profitability and a 2.36% dividend yield against expectations for revenue contraction and more moderate earnings growth ahead.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to see how Virtu Financial's latest margin profile and EPS trajectory line up with the widely followed narratives around its earnings power and long term prospects.

79.9% TTM earnings jump stands out

• Over the last twelve months, EPS came in at US$5.50, which lines up with a 79.9% earnings increase and compares with US$2.98 at the end of 2024 on a trailing basis.
• What stands out for a more bullish take is that this strong TTM EPS result of US$5.50 sits alongside trailing net income of US$468.4 million and a 16.5% margin. However, the longer 5 year trend still shows a 15.5% annual decline in earnings, which means anyone leaning bullish needs to balance the recent strength against a weaker multi year pattern.

Margins at 16.5% while revenue faces 18.1% decline forecast

• Trailing twelve month revenue is about US$2.8b with net income of US$468.4 million, which produces the 16.5% net margin that compares with 11.7% a year earlier. This comes at the same time that revenue is expected to decline by about 18.1% per year over the next three years.
• Critics highlight the expected 18.1% annual revenue decline and 12% forecast earnings growth. The tension here is that the current 16.5% margin and TTM EPS of US$5.50 show strong profitability right now, while the 5 year earnings trend of a 15.5% annual decline points to a business that has not grown consistently.
• The recent TTM lift in net income from US$260.4 million to US$468.4 million sits against those weaker multi year earnings figures, so both data points matter if you are worried about durability.
• Forecast earnings growth of about 12% per year is also below the 16.1% US market forecast, which supports a more cautious stance even with margins currently at 16.5%.

P/E of 7.4x against peers at 13x

• With a share price of US$40.66 and trailing EPS of US$5.50, Virtu trades on a P/E of 7.4x, compared with peers at 13x and the US Capital Markets industry at 24.5x, while the DCF fair value reference of US$55.63 sits above the current price.
• What is interesting for valuation focused investors is that the combination of a 7.4x P/E, a DCF fair value of US$55.63 and a 2.36% dividend yield sits alongside forecasts for about 12% annual earnings growth and an 18.1% annual revenue decline. The apparently low multiple therefore comes with trade offs on both growth expectations and top line trends.
• The gap between the current price of US$40.66 and the DCF fair value of US$55.63 exists even though the 5 year earnings trend shows a 15.5% annual decline, which is not what you would usually associate with a straightforward growth story.
• At the same time, the stock trades below peer and sector P/E levels while still offering that 2.36% dividend yield, which some investors might see as compensation for the weaker revenue outlook.

Next Steps

Don't just look at this quarter; the real story is in the long-term trend. We've done an in-depth analysis on Virtu Financial's growth and its valuation to see if today's price is a bargain. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio now so you don't miss the next big move.

See What Else Is Out There

Virtu Financial’s 79.9% TTM earnings jump sits alongside an 18.1% annual revenue decline forecast and a 15.5% annual earnings decline over five years.

If that mix of shrinking revenue and uneven long term earnings worries you, check out stable growth stocks screener (2171 results) to focus on businesses with steadier top and bottom line performance through different conditions.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.