• Hagerty, Inc. recently reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with sales rising to US$221.42 million for the quarter and US$845.93 million for the year, and net income improving to US$6.92 million and US$41.46 million respectively.
• Alongside this stronger profitability, Hagerty issued 2026 guidance that includes lower reported revenue of about US$1.28–US$1.30 billion under a new Markel fronting arrangement and an expected net loss.
• Against this backdrop, we’ll now explore how Hagerty’s strong 2025 performance but loss-making 2026 guidance under its new Markel structure affects its investment narrative.

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Hagerty Investment Narrative Recap

To own Hagerty stock, you need to believe in the long term appeal of collector car insurance and related enthusiast services, even as tastes and demographics evolve. The key near term catalyst remains execution on membership and international marketplace growth, while the biggest risk has shifted toward underwriting exposure under the new Markel structure and the prospect of a guided 2026 net loss. The latest results do not remove that risk, but they show the core business can be profitable.

The most relevant announcement here is Hagerty’s 2026 guidance, which calls for total revenue of about US$1.28–US$1.30 billion and a net loss of US$41–US$51 million as Markel related commission revenue drops out. This guidance directly connects to the catalyst of gaining more control and economics from retaining 100% of premiums, while highlighting that the new structure could pressure earnings and amplify swings in underwriting results before any potential benefits show up.

Yet for all the upbeat talk on Hagerty’s growth engine, investors should also be aware that underwriting risk concentration under Markel could...

Hagerty's narrative projects $1.8 billion revenue and $228.5 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Hagerty's forecasts yield a $13.67 fair value, a 16% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

One member of the Simply Wall St Community currently estimates Hagerty’s fair value at about US$6.38, well below the recent market price. You can weigh that view against the increased underwriting risk under the Markel fronting arrangement and consider how different assumptions about loss ratios and profitability might impact the business over time.

Explore another fair value estimate on Hagerty - why the stock might be worth 46% less than the current price!

Form Your Own Verdict

Disagree with existing narratives? Extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd, so go with your instincts.

• A great starting point for your Hagerty research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Hagerty research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Hagerty's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.