• In early January 2026, Rivian Automotive reported that it produced 10,974 vehicles and delivered 9,745 in the fourth quarter of 2025, contributing to 42,284 vehicles produced and 42,247 delivered for the full year amid a softer EV market.
• These figures, alongside the debut of Rivian’s custom autonomy hardware, software, and subscription services, highlight a tension between weaker near-term demand and the company’s push to build new technology-driven revenue streams.
• Now we’ll assess how Rivian’s year-over-year delivery decline, despite its autonomy and AI push, reshapes the company’s broader investment narrative.

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Rivian Automotive Investment Narrative Recap

To own Rivian today, you need to believe it can turn strong brand recognition, new models like R2, and software into a sustainable, scaled EV business despite ongoing losses and industry pressure. The latest update, showing an 18% year over year delivery decline in 2025, keeps the key near term catalyst squarely on whether Rivian can stabilize demand and improve unit economics, while reinforcing that liquidity and future capital needs remain one of the biggest risks.

The recent Autonomy & AI Day, including the launch of Rivian’s in house Autonomy Compute Module, custom RAP1 chip and the upcoming Autonomy+ subscription, ties directly into the idea of higher margin software and services supplementing vehicle sales. For investors, these announcements sit alongside the R2 launch as potential offsets to softer EV demand, but do not yet change the immediate focus on cash burn and the timing and scale of any future funding.

Yet behind the promise of autonomy and new models, investors should be aware of the ongoing high cash burn and potential future dilution...

Rivian Automotive's narrative projects $15.7 billion revenue and $788.9 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Rivian Automotive's forecasts yield a $15.75 fair value, a 20% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Sixteen members of the Simply Wall St Community value Rivian between US$8.25 and US$41.60, highlighting very different expectations about its future. Against that wide range, the recent delivery decline and continued cash burn keep the company’s path to profitability and funding needs firmly in focus, so it is worth considering several of these viewpoints before forming your own view.

Explore 16 other fair value estimates on Rivian Automotive - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Rivian Automotive Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Rivian Automotive research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Rivian Automotive research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Rivian Automotive's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.