• Century Aluminum and Emirates Global Aluminium recently announced plans to build the first new primary aluminum smelter in the U.S. in over 45 years, a multi-billion-dollar facility in Inola, Oklahoma that will use state-of-the-art technology and is expected to create 5,000 jobs.
• This project is intended to materially lift domestic primary aluminum capacity and strengthen U.S. supply chain resilience for critical metals used across key industries.
• We'll now examine how this planned Inola smelter, expected to significantly expand domestic capacity, could reshape Century Aluminum's existing investment narrative.

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Century Aluminum Investment Narrative Recap

To own Century Aluminum, you have to believe in a long term U.S. aluminum build out supported by trade protections, resilient premiums and disciplined project execution. The Inola smelter plan reinforces the capacity growth catalyst but also magnifies execution, capital intensity and policy risks, which remain the key near term swing factors for the story.

Among recent developments, the joint development agreement with Emirates Global Aluminium for the Inola plant stands out. With EGA holding 60% and Century 40% of a planned 750,000 tonne per year facility, this project sits at the center of the growth thesis that hinges on expanding U.S. production while relying on Section 232 tariffs and 45X tax credits to support project economics.

Yet investors should also be aware that if Section 232 tariffs or key power contracts change materially, the economics of these large projects could shift...

Century Aluminum's narrative projects $3.0 billion revenue and $479.3 million earnings by 2028. This requires 7.6% yearly revenue growth and about a $368 million earnings increase from $111.4 million today.

Uncover how Century Aluminum's forecasts yield a $59.00 fair value, a 28% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the most optimistic analysts were already assuming revenue of about US$3.7 billion and earnings near US$930.0 million by 2029, which is far more upbeat than consensus and very dependent on projects like the new smelter and Mt. Holly restart playing out as hoped, showing how differently you and other investors might view Century’s potential before even factoring in this latest news.

Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Century Aluminum - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Century Aluminum Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Century Aluminum research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Century Aluminum research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Century Aluminum's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.