• Century Aluminum announced it has secured a power agreement extension with Santee Cooper to supply its Mt. Holly smelter through 2031, enabling a US$50 million investment to restart idle capacity, create over 100 new jobs, and return the plant to full production for the first time since 2015.
• This move, along with a majority stake acquisition in the Jamalco smelter and strong U.S. tariff protections, highlights Century Aluminum’s push for vertical integration and a larger role in revitalizing American aluminum output.
• We’ll examine how the Mt. Holly power agreement extension supports Century’s production growth narrative and future capacity plans.

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Century Aluminum Investment Narrative Recap

To be a Century Aluminum shareholder today, you need to believe in the staying power of U.S. tariff protections and resilient domestic aluminum demand, both of which currently underpin strong Midwest premiums and the case for U.S.-based production growth. The recent Mt. Holly power extension strengthens the most important near-term catalyst, full plant restart and capacity investment, while also addressing execution risks by securing stable power, though exposure to tariff policy shifts remains the largest threat to this outlook.

Among recent developments, the company’s acquisition of a majority stake in the Jamalco smelter is especially relevant because it further supports raw material supply and vertical integration, complementing the Mt. Holly expansion. Together, these moves aim to reinforce margins and production stability in the face of commodity market swings and evolving trade policy environments.

By contrast, investors should be aware of how sensitive Century Aluminum’s future profits are to changes in...

Century Aluminum's outlook anticipates $3.0 billion in revenue and $479.3 million in earnings by 2028. This scenario involves a 7.6% annual revenue growth rate and a $367.9 million increase in earnings from the current $111.4 million.

Uncover how Century Aluminum's forecasts yield a $31.67 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Three Simply Wall St Community member estimates for fair value range widely from US$22.13 to US$71.70 per share. With Mt. Holly’s restart relying on stable tariff support, consider how policy risks may affect future earnings before forming your own view.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Century Aluminum - why the stock might be worth 32% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Century Aluminum Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Century Aluminum research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Century Aluminum research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Century Aluminum's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.