• In early February 2026, Oscar Health entered into a US$475.0 million secured three-year revolving credit facility and, despite reporting a full-year 2025 net loss of US$443.15 million, issued full-year 2026 guidance calling for total revenue of US$18.7 billion to US$19.0 billion and earnings from operations of US$250 million to US$450 million.
• The company is pairing rapid membership growth, technology-driven efficiency efforts and expanded market reach with new financial flexibility from the credit facility as it targets a return to profitability in 2026.
• Against this backdrop, we’ll examine how Oscar’s 2026 profitability guidance and new US$475.0 million credit facility affect its investment narrative.

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Oscar Health Investment Narrative Recap

To own Oscar Health, you need to believe its fast-growing, tech-focused insurance platform can convert scale into sustainable profits despite current losses. The key near term catalyst is the company’s 2026 profitability target, and the biggest risk is that elevated medical costs and risk adjustment pressures keep margins under strain. The new US$475.0 million revolving credit facility adds liquidity and flexibility, but does not remove the underlying earnings quality and medical loss ratio risk.

The most relevant recent development here is Oscar’s 2026 guidance, which calls for US$18.7 billion to US$19.0 billion in revenue and US$250 million to US$450 million in earnings from operations. Taken together with the new credit facility, this guidance frames a “prove it” year, where membership growth, AI-driven cost control and pricing discipline need to translate into the margin improvement implied in the outlook.

Yet even with the new credit line, investors should be aware that persistent pressure on Oscar’s medical loss ratio could still...

Oscar Health's narrative projects $12.4 billion revenue and $245.4 million earnings by 2028. This requires 4.9% yearly revenue growth and an earnings increase of about $406.6 million from -$161.2 million today.

Uncover how Oscar Health's forecasts yield a $15.78 fair value, a 18% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Some of the most optimistic analysts were already assuming Oscar could reach about US$13.8 billion in revenue and US$574.6 million in earnings by 2028, so this latest guidance and new credit facility may either reinforce that bullish view or prompt a rethink, depending on how you see the risks around high medical costs and intense competition playing out.

Explore 22 other fair value estimates on Oscar Health - why the stock might be worth over 4x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Oscar Health Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Oscar Health research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Oscar Health research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Oscar Health's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.