• In recent days, Rivian Automotive reported 2025 production of 42,284 vehicles and deliveries of 42,247, while also initiating a major recall of nearly 20,000 R1S and R1T vehicles in the US to fix an improperly assembled rear toe link at no charge.
• At the same time, Rivian appointed Greg Revelle as Chief Customer Officer to oversee the entire customer journey, highlighting a push to tighten execution on sales, marketing, and operations amid rising questions about demand and quality.
• Against this backdrop, we’ll explore how UBS’s downgrade amid recall-related concerns and softer 2025 deliveries reshapes Rivian’s existing investment narrative.

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Rivian Automotive Investment Narrative Recap

To own Rivian today, you need to believe it can scale from a still‑unprofitable EV maker into a higher volume business without exhausting its balance sheet, while the R2 launch remains the key near term catalyst and liquidity the biggest risk. The 2025 production shortfall and recall are relevant but do not appear to fundamentally alter that equation yet, although they may sharpen focus on execution quality and future funding needs.

Among the recent developments, UBS’s downgrade after Rivian’s recall and softer 2025 deliveries stands out, because it directly questions how much credit the stock should get for its Autonomy & AI Day and longer term technology story. For investors tracking catalysts, that tension between enthusiasm for Rivian’s software ambitions and concern about current demand, quality and capital intensity is likely to frame how upcoming R2 milestones are received.

Yet beneath the excitement around future models, investors should be aware of the ongoing high cash burn and the possibility of future equity raises that could...

Rivian Automotive's narrative projects $15.7 billion revenue and $788.9 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how Rivian Automotive's forecasts yield a $16.67 fair value, a 5% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Fifteen members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Rivian’s fair value between US$8.25 and about US$43.39, reflecting a very wide spread of expectations. Against that backdrop, recall related concerns and questions about future capital needs give you strong reasons to compare several of these viewpoints before deciding how Rivian might fit in your own portfolio.

Explore 15 other fair value estimates on Rivian Automotive - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Rivian Automotive Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Rivian Automotive research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Rivian Automotive research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Rivian Automotive's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.