• Earlier this month, Tenable Holdings reported fourth-quarter 2025 results showing sales of US$260.53 million and full-year 2025 sales of US$999.41 million, alongside a small quarterly net loss and updated 2026 revenue guidance of US$1.07 billion at the midpoint, while completing a US$362.41 million share repurchase program and expanding it by US$150 million.
• Management pointed to accelerating adoption of the Tenable One platform and growing demand for AI-powered exposure management, reinforced by recent industry recognition, as key drivers behind the stronger-than-expected results and confident 2026 outlook.
• With Tenable highlighting rapid Tenable One and AI exposure management adoption, we’ll now examine how these developments influence its existing investment narrative.

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Tenable Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

To own Tenable, you need to believe that unified, AI enabled exposure management can become a core security layer, not just a niche add on. The key near term catalyst is continued Tenable One adoption and AI exposure management traction; this quarter’s stronger revenue and customer additions support that, while the small net loss highlights that profitability remains fragile. Competitive pressure from platform centric security giants is still the most immediate risk and was not meaningfully reduced by this report.

The most relevant recent announcement is Tenable’s recognition in the 2025 Gartner AI Vendor Race as “the company to beat” for AI powered exposure assessment. That third party endorsement aligns directly with management’s emphasis on AI driven exposure management in the quarter and could reinforce Tenable One’s role in larger platform deals, which is central to the current catalyst around platform consolidation and larger contract sizes.

But while AI leadership sounds attractive, investors should also be aware that...

Tenable Holdings' narrative projects $1.2 billion revenue and $33.8 million earnings by 2028. This requires 8.8% yearly revenue growth and an $78.8 million earnings increase from -$45.0 million today.

Uncover how Tenable Holdings' forecasts yield a $30.95 fair value, a 37% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Before this report, the most cautious analysts were assuming Tenable’s revenue would grow only about 8.9 percent a year and earnings reach roughly US$52 million by 2029, so if you are worried that heavy AI and R&D spend could cap margins even as Tenable One gains ground, this latest quarter may or may not shift that more pessimistic view once forecasts are updated.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on Tenable Holdings - why the stock might be worth 12% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Tenable Holdings Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Tenable Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Tenable Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Tenable Holdings' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.