• Tidewater recently issued 2026 revenue guidance of US$1.32 billion to US$1.37 billion, reaffirmed vessel utilization near 76%, and left about US$500 million remaining under its share repurchase authorization, while Sagil Capital fully exited its position in the stock.
• At the same time, Black Bear Value Fund reiterated Tidewater as a key holding, highlighting the company’s sizeable offshore support vessel fleet, reduced debt, and capital return plans as reasons for its continued interest despite a mixed near-term industry backdrop.
• With management’s new multi-billion revenue outlook and sizeable buyback in place, we’ll now examine how this update reshapes Tidewater’s investment narrative.

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Tidewater Investment Narrative Recap

To stay invested in Tidewater, you need to be comfortable with a cyclical offshore story where vessel utilization and day rates remain the key near term swing factors. The latest guidance and buyback update support the existing catalyst of tight vessel supply, while the biggest risk remains softer offshore demand that could keep utilization below potential. Sagil Capital’s full exit and Black Bear’s continued conviction mainly reflect differing views, rather than a material change to Tidewater’s fundamentals.

The most relevant piece of news here is management’s 2026 revenue guidance of US$1.32 billion to US$1.37 billion, paired with utilization near 76%. This outlook helps frame how much operating leverage Tidewater might capture if offshore projects proceed as planned, reinforcing the catalyst of a constrained global OSV fleet. At the same time, it highlights how exposed results remain to any pauses or delays in offshore activity, especially in more volatile regions.

Yet even with firm guidance and a large buyback, investors should still be aware that prolonged softness in offshore demand could...

Tidewater's narrative projects $1.5 billion revenue and $306.5 million earnings by 2028. This requires 3.6% yearly revenue growth and about a $107.6 million earnings increase from $198.9 million today.

Uncover how Tidewater's forecasts yield a $60.00 fair value, a 11% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The lowest analyst estimates paint a far more cautious picture, assuming revenue of about US$1.4 billion and earnings near US$278 million by 2028, which could look conservative next to Tidewater’s new 2026 guidance and the risk of tighter vessel supply you have just read about.

Explore 8 other fair value estimates on Tidewater - why the stock might be worth 33% less than the current price!

Build Your Own Tidewater Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Tidewater research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Tidewater research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Tidewater's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.