• Upstart Holdings recently reported that it expects very large earnings per share growth and revenue to rise over 73% year-over-year for the most recent quarter.
• Analyst confidence is particularly strong, with the company currently holding a favorable Zacks Rank indicating positive sentiment regarding its operations and profit prospects.
• We’ll now examine how strong analyst sentiment around Upstart Holdings’ earnings growth expectations could influence its investment outlook.

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Upstart Holdings Investment Narrative Recap

For investors interested in Upstart Holdings, the core thesis centers on belief in the power of its AI-driven lending platform to deliver sustainable loan growth while effectively managing credit risk in a changing economic environment. The company’s guidance for strong earnings per share growth and a 73% year-over-year revenue jump reinforces expectations around rapid expansion, making near-term performance a central catalyst; however, persistent worries about credit model accuracy and macro-driven default risks remain top of mind and could quickly materialize despite upbeat quarterly numbers.

Among recent developments, Upstart’s steady addition of new credit union partners, most recently Cornerstone Community Financial and ABNB Federal Credit Union, directly ties into the growth story underpinning its platform revenue and origination volume. Expanded partnerships not only reflect lender trust but also feed into elevated analyst expectations, contributing to short-term optimism while raising stakes for model reliability as volumes scale.

By contrast, a sudden increase in loan default rates, however unlikely in the current quarter, would be an important risk investors should keep an eye on...

Upstart Holdings' outlook anticipates $1.8 billion in revenue and $337.2 million in earnings by 2028. This scenario is built on a 27.2% annual revenue growth rate and an increase in earnings by $343.6 million from the current earnings of -$6.4 million.

Uncover how Upstart Holdings' forecasts yield a $80.85 fair value, a 28% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The Simply Wall St Community’s 14 fair value estimates for Upstart Holdings range widely from US$21.91 to US$85, highlighting divided opinions on valuation. Analysts’ strong focus on earnings acceleration could influence whether these community forecasts align with future performance, so consider several points of view.

Explore 14 other fair value estimates on Upstart Holdings - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Upstart Holdings Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Upstart Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Upstart Holdings research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Upstart Holdings' overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.