• In its fourth-quarter 2025 investor letter, Meridian Growth Fund reported that Certara, Inc. underperformed after service bookings came in weaker than expected, prompting management to slightly lower guidance.
• The fund also pointed to Certara’s ongoing transformation under a new CEO, including a more commercially focused approach and potential sale of a non-core business, even as its biosimulation tools supported a majority of recent FDA drug approvals.
• Next, we’ll examine how softer service bookings and the shift toward a more focused, commercially driven model may influence Certara’s investment narrative.

Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

What Is Certara's Investment Narrative?

The big picture for Certara is still about believing that biosimulation and model-informed drug development will remain embedded in how regulators and pharma companies run trials, and that the company can convert that position into durable, profitable growth. Recent weakness in service bookings and the slight guidance cut dent that near-term earnings cadence, and they also put more weight on the new CEO’s ability to tighten commercial execution and potentially streamline the portfolio with a non-core divestiture. At the same time, Certara’s tools being used in a majority of recent FDA approvals underlines why many investors see its core software and platforms as the main catalyst, rather than consulting-heavy services. The near-term risk is that a slower services pipeline or a bumpy transition period prolongs pressure on valuation and confidence.

However, investors should be aware that execution risk around the new CEO’s plan is now more central. Certara's shares have been on the rise but are still potentially undervalued. Find out how large the opportunity might be.

Exploring Other Perspectives

The Simply Wall St Community’s three fair value views span roughly US$9 to about US$21.39, showing how far apart private investors can be. That spread sits against softer service bookings and leadership change, which many readers may see as a reminder to weigh both execution risk and the strength of Certara’s core technology before forming their own view.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Certara - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own Certara Narrative

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Certara research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Certara research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Certara's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.