• In late January 2026, 10% owner Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. sold nearly 50,000 PBF Energy shares as the company continues to work through the fallout from its February 2025 Martinez, California refinery explosion, which has kept the facility below full capacity and pushed the targeted return to normal operations into March 2026.
• Against this backdrop, PBF Energy is contending with high operating and maintenance costs, including about US$600 million earmarked for upkeep and turnarounds across its refineries, and is expected to close fiscal 2025 with a net loss for a second straight year, highlighting how prolonged operational disruptions can weigh on longer-term profitability.
• We’ll now examine how the Martinez refinery’s delayed full restart affects PBF Energy’s investment narrative, cost profile, and risk-return balance.

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What Is PBF Energy's Investment Narrative?

To own PBF Energy today, you have to believe the Martinez refinery eventually returns to stable, economically viable operations and that the broader refining system can generate enough cash to justify ongoing maintenance, dividends and past buybacks despite recent losses. The core near term catalyst is still the March 2026 target for Martinez to reach full capacity, because sustained underperformance there has already coincided with two years of net losses and elevated operating spend, including roughly US$600 million planned for upkeep and turnarounds. The fresh insider selling from 10% owner Control Empresarial de Capitales S.A. de C.V. does not, on its own, change that thesis, but it does sharpen focus on execution risk and the possibility that high costs and downtime linger longer than previously assumed, potentially muting the impact of any recovery in throughput.

However, there is one operational risk in particular that shareholders should not overlook. PBF Energy's shares are on the way up, but they could be overextended by 11%. Uncover the fair value now.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Five Simply Wall St Community fair value views span roughly US$20 to a very large figure above US$300, underlining just how far apart private investors can be. Set against this wide dispersion, the Martinez restart timeline and still-elevated cost base remain central to how you might interpret PBF Energy’s long-term performance and risk profile.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on PBF Energy - why the stock might be worth over 10x more than the current price!

Build Your Own PBF Energy Narrative

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your PBF Energy research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free PBF Energy research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate PBF Energy's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.