It's been a mediocre week for Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:ZVRA) shareholders, with the stock dropping 13% to US$8.81 in the week since its latest quarterly results. Results look to have been somewhat negative - revenue fell 2.2% short of analyst estimates at US$26m, although statutory losses were somewhat better. The per-share loss was US$0.01, 70% smaller than the analysts were expecting prior to the result. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

After the latest results, the eight analysts covering Zevra Therapeutics are now predicting revenues of US$144.7m in 2026. If met, this would reflect a huge 71% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to plunge 25% to US$0.47 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of US$155.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.55 in 2026. From this we can that sentiment has definitely become more bearish after the latest results, leading to lower revenue forecasts and a substantial drop in earnings per share estimates.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$23.10 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Zevra Therapeutics, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$29.00 and the most bearish at US$18.00 per share. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The analysts are definitely expecting Zevra Therapeutics' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 54% annualised growth to the end of 2026 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 26% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 9.0% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Zevra Therapeutics is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Zevra Therapeutics. They also downgraded Zevra Therapeutics' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$23.10, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Zevra Therapeutics going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.