Johnson Controls International (NYSE:JCI) has moved into focus after reporting first quarter fiscal 2026 results, issuing 2026 profit guidance above Wall Street expectations and highlighting steady demand for its data center focused thermal and cooling equipment.

The latest earnings, data center product launches and new guidance have come alongside a 25.17% 1 month share price return and a 57.99% 1 year total shareholder return. This suggests momentum has picked up recently from an already strong multi year run.

If Johnson Controls' data center focus has caught your eye, you might also want to scope out 33 AI infrastructure stocks as another way to find infrastructure names tied to AI build outs.

With the shares up sharply over the past year and trading only about 2% below the average analyst target, the key question now is whether Johnson Controls still offers upside or if the market is already pricing in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 50% Overvalued

Compared with the most followed fair value estimate of $138.11, Johnson Controls' last close at $138.75 prices the shares essentially in line with that narrative, even though the model itself flags the stock as overvalued on a discounted cash flow basis.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $112.85 for Johnson Controls International based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $132.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $79.0.

In order for you to agree with the analyst's consensus, you would need to believe that by 2028, revenues will be $27.0 billion, earnings will come to $3.3 billion, and it would be trading on a PE ratio of 27.7x, assuming you use a discount rate of 9.1%.

It may be surprising that a business with mid single digit revenue growth assumptions and rising margins can still be tagged as overvalued by a DCF model, even when that model uses a discount rate above 9%, a richer future earnings multiple than the broader building sector, and a forecast of fewer shares outstanding to support the valuation.

Result: Fair Value of $138.11 (OVERVALUED)

However, you still need to keep an eye on execution risks around the new structure and Lean rollout, as well as fast moving competition in data center cooling architectures.

Build Your Own Johnson Controls International Narrative

If you are not convinced by this view or would rather test your own assumptions, you can build a custom Johnson Controls narrative yourself in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Johnson Controls International research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.