VICI Properties (VICI) has come back into focus after Scotiabank downgraded the stock, highlighting uncertainty around the Caesars Entertainment Regional Master Lease and potential limits to external growth following recent Las Vegas Locals acquisitions.

Scotiabank’s downgrade and questions around the Caesars regional lease arrive just as VICI’s 30 day share price return of 4.09% has partly offset a 3.49% decline over 90 days, while its 1 year total shareholder return of 2.12% and 5 year total shareholder return of 35.98% indicate that momentum has cooled recently compared with its longer history.

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With VICI trading at $29.30, an implied 20% gap to the average analyst price target, and a flagged intrinsic discount of around 47%, you have to ask whether this uncertainty is creating a buying window or whether the market is already pricing in all the future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 16.6% Undervalued

With VICI Properties last closing at $29.30 against a narrative fair value of $35.13, the widely followed view is that the market is being cautious about future cash flows relative to this valuation work.

The company's scale, access to $2.9 billion in liquidity, and disciplined internal funding position enable accretive acquisitions and partnerships without near-term dependence on capital markets. This supports earnings and AFFO per share growth while maintaining low G&A expenses and strong net margins.

Ongoing tenant reinvestment in VICI-owned properties, catalyzed by favorable tax law changes (bonus depreciation), and continued capital deployment into high-demand experiential real estate (for example, theme parks, sports facilities, convention hotels) may increase asset value and future rental income, which would support long-term earnings and net asset value expansion.

Curious what sits behind that $35.13 fair value? The narrative blends steady revenue growth, resilient margins, and a different earnings multiple than the market is using today.

Result: Fair Value of $35.13 (UNDERVALUED)

However, that story can change quickly if Caesars’ regional lease terms are revised or if online betting continues to chip away at physical casino traffic and tenant strength.

Build Your Own VICI Properties Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or simply prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a custom view of VICI in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your VICI Properties research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.