It's been a mediocre week for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (NYSE:CMG) shareholders, with the stock dropping 13% to US$46.76 in the week since its latest second-quarter results. It was a credible result overall, with revenues of US$3.1b and statutory earnings per share of US$0.32 both in line with analyst estimates, showing that Chipotle Mexican Grill is executing in line with expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

After the latest results, the 28 analysts covering Chipotle Mexican Grill are now predicting revenues of US$12.2b in 2025. If met, this would reflect a credible 5.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 4.9% to US$1.21. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$12.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$1.22 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$58.60, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Chipotle Mexican Grill, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$65.00 and the most bearish at US$46.00 per share. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Chipotle Mexican Grill's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 10% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 14% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 157 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 9.6% per year. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Chipotle Mexican Grill is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Chipotle Mexican Grill going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Chipotle Mexican Grill is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.