Antero Midstream (AM) closed out FY 2025 with fourth quarter revenue of US$244 million and basic EPS of US$0.11, compared with US$305.1 million of revenue and EPS of US$0.23 in the same quarter a year earlier. Over the past year, the company has seen quarterly revenue move from US$305.1 million in Q4 2024 through a range of US$308.8 million to US$323.1 million in 2025, while quarterly EPS moved between US$0.23 and US$0.26. This sets up a backdrop where margins and earnings quality sit at the center of how investors are likely to read this latest update.

With the headline numbers on the table, the next step is to stack these results against the most common stories around Antero Midstream and see which narratives hold up and which ones the new data calls into question.

34.8% net margin puts profitability in focus

• On a trailing basis, Antero Midstream is earning US$413.2 million of net income on US$1.19b of revenue, which works out to a 34.8% net margin compared with 34% a year ago.
• Analysts' consensus view leans on those margins staying healthy, as they tie long term contracts and efficiency projects to earnings stability. Yet the Q4 2025 net income of US$52.3 million versus US$115.8 million in Q3 2025 shows how quarter to quarter swings can sit awkwardly against that story.
  • Consensus narrative highlights long term, exclusive contracts and over 20 years of dedicated gas inventory as reasons margins can remain resilient, which lines up with the 34.8% margin level on trailing data.
  • At the same time, trailing EPS of US$0.86 is only 3.2% higher than a year ago, which is much gentler than the longer run 13.4% annual earnings growth history that the consensus case leans on.

Curious how this mix of strong trailing margins and lumpier quarterly profit fits into the broader story for Antero Midstream? 📊 Read the full Antero Midstream Consensus Narrative.

Earnings growth forecasts versus recent EPS run rate

• Over the last 12 months, EPS is reported at US$0.86, with quarter by quarter EPS in FY 2025 moving between US$0.11 and US$0.26, while analysts are forecasting earnings growth of about 20.3% per year from here.
• What stands out in the bullish framing is the gap between that 20.3% forecast and the 3.2% trailing EPS growth, which means investors watching the bullish case will likely focus on how quickly earnings can move from the recent run rate toward those future expectations.
  • The five year annualized earnings growth of 13.4% gives bulls historic support for an earnings growth story, but the latest trailing year is running below that pace, so the 20.3% forecast asks for an acceleration from recent trends.
  • Revenue growth is forecast at 7.3% a year, which is slower than the broader US market forecast of 10.4%, so a bullish stance has to lean more on margin and efficiency improvements than on fast top line expansion.

Bulls argue that efficiency gains and long term contracts can turn today’s modest EPS growth into that 20.3% path, but the recent quarterly numbers make it a story worth checking in detail. 🐂 Antero Midstream Bull Case

24x P/E, 4.3% yield and higher debt keep risk on the table

• The shares trade on a 24x P/E at a price of US$20.91 with a 4.3% dividend yield, compared with an Oil & Gas industry average P/E of 14.5x and a peer average of 44.5x, while a DCF fair value of US$59.35 and weak dividend coverage with high debt round out the picture.
• Skeptics focus on that mix of richer than industry P/E, high leverage and dividends not well covered by earnings, and those points line up with the data even though the DCF fair value of US$59.35 and forecast earnings growth suggest upside if the balance sheet and payout commitments remain manageable.
  • The current price of US$20.91 sits well below the DCF fair value of US$59.35 and an analyst target reference of US$19.43, so any bearish view is less about today’s price level and more about confidence in future cash generation and debt service.
  • Dividend yield of 4.3% can look appealing, but with dividends not well covered by earnings and high debt, critics highlight that more of future cash flow may need to go toward funding the balance sheet rather than increasing shareholder payouts.

Skeptics warn that a 24x P/E with high debt and a tightly covered 4.3% yield leaves less room for missteps than the DCF fair value might suggest. 🐻 Antero Midstream Bear Case

Next Steps

To see how these results tie into long-term growth, risks, and valuation, check out the full range of community narratives for Antero Midstream on Simply Wall St. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio so you'll be alerted when the story evolves.

See the numbers differently? If this update gives you a fresh angle, turn that view into your own narrative in just a few minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Antero Midstream research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

See What Else Is Out There

Antero Midstream pairs a 24x P/E and 4.3% yield with modest trailing EPS growth, high debt and dividends that are not well covered by earnings.

If that mix of leverage and thin dividend cover makes you cautious, compare it with companies screened for stronger financial cushions using our solid balance sheet and fundamentals stocks screener (45 results) right now.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.