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Assessing Alumis (ALMS) Valuation After Positive Phase 3 Psoriasis Data And Follow On Equity Offering
Alumis Inc. ALMS | 27.97 | -4.23% |
Alumis (ALMS) is back in focus after reporting positive Phase 3 ONWARD1 and ONWARD2 results for its TYK2 inhibitor envudeucitinib in plaque psoriasis, followed by a completed US$300.05 million follow-on equity offering.
The upbeat Phase 3 data and follow on equity offering have coincided with strong near term momentum, with a 30 day share price return of 92.43% and a year to date share price return of 146.90%, while the 1 year total shareholder return of 189.40% points to sustained interest in Alumis at the current US$22.11 share price.
If this kind of clinical readout has caught your eye, it could be a good moment to scan other healthcare stocks that might be drawing fresh investor attention too.
With Alumis now trading at US$22.11 against an average analyst price target of US$37.29 and fresh capital in hand, is the recent surge still leaving upside on the table, or is the market already pricing in its prospects?
Price to Book of 7.2x: Is it justified?
At a last close of US$22.11, Alumis is trading on a P/B of 7.2x, which sits well above the broader US Pharmaceuticals industry yet below its closer peer set.
P/B compares the market value of the company to its net assets on the balance sheet and is often used for early stage or unprofitable businesses where earnings based multiples are less meaningful.
For Alumis, the 7.2x P/B suggests investors are putting a high value on the company relative to its current book value, even though it is loss making today and is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next three years. That points to expectations that the pipeline and projected revenue growth could change the earnings profile over time. At the same time, it means the market is not pricing the stock as a deep value name based on assets alone.
Compared with the wider US Pharmaceuticals industry average P/B of 2.5x, Alumis trades on a materially richer multiple, implying investors are paying a premium relative to typical sector peers. However, against a closer peer group where the average P/B is 11.3x, its 7.2x level sits at a discount, suggesting the market is assigning it a lower valuation than some similar companies with comparable characteristics.
Result: Price-to-book of 7.2x (ABOUT RIGHT)
However, the story still carries risk, particularly around ongoing losses of US$245.153 million and the clinical, regulatory and commercial hurdles tied to its autoimmune pipeline.
Build Your Own Alumis Narrative
If you see the numbers differently or want to test your own view against the data, you can build a custom thesis in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.
A great starting point for your Alumis research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.


