Why CME Group’s latest earnings matter for shareholders

CME Group (CME) just released fourth quarter and full year 2025 results, giving you fresh numbers on how the futures exchange operator is performing and where its growth engines currently sit.

The company reported fourth quarter revenue of US$1,648.7 million and net income of US$1,182.9 million, with diluted earnings per share from continuing operations of US$3.24. For the full year, revenue was US$6,520.6 million and net income reached US$4,072.2 million, with diluted earnings per share from continuing operations of US$11.16.

Management also pointed to record volume for 2025, broader use of its contracts across asset classes, and increasing participation from retail traders. In addition, CME Group highlighted progress in areas that sit at the intersection of derivatives and digital assets, which is becoming a bigger part of the story for the stock.

CME Group’s recent earnings news sits against a backdrop of strong recent momentum, with a 1-month share price return of 15.17% and a 1-year total shareholder return of 25.81%. The 3-year total shareholder return of 83.62% and 5-year total shareholder return of 98.17% show that longer term holders have also seen solid compounding. Alongside record trading volumes, fresh crypto initiatives and new securities clearing plans, that recent share price strength suggests investors are reacting to both growth initiatives and shifting views on risk around the business model.

If recent crypto and derivatives headlines have caught your attention, it could be a good moment to broaden your watchlist with our screener of 18 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks.

With CME trading around US$302, close to the average analyst price target and with a very low value score, is the recent run simply catching up to fundamentals, or are markets already pricing in most of the future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 4.1% Overvalued

CME Group’s last close of $302.27 sits a little above the most followed fair value estimate of $290.40, so the narrative sees only a modest valuation gap.

The ongoing global shift toward electronic trading, greater regulatory demands for transparency and standardized clearing, and a proven ability to grow non-transactional revenue (e.g., record market data revenue) position CME to capture a larger share of trading activity and support durable long-term earnings growth.

Curious what earnings path and margin profile underpin that price tag. The narrative leans on steady top line expansion, resilient profitability and a richer future earnings multiple. Want the full playbook that ties those assumptions to today’s fair value call.

Result: Fair Value of $290.40 (OVERVALUED)

However, there are clear pressure points too, including competition from DeFi style platforms and periods of lower volatility that could reduce futures volumes and fee income.

Build Your Own CME Group Narrative

If you look at the numbers and come to a different conclusion, or prefer to build your own view from scratch, you can pull the data together and shape a full CME story in just a few minutes, then Do it your way

A great starting point for your CME Group research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If CME has sharpened your focus, do not stop there. Broaden your opportunity set with a few targeted idea lists built from the Simply Wall St screener.

• Target potential mispricings by scanning our hand picked list of 52 high quality undervalued stocks that pair quality fundamentals with attractive market prices.
• Strengthen your income stream by reviewing our collection of 14 dividend fortresses that offer higher yields alongside business stability checks.
• Prioritise resilience by checking companies in our 82 resilient stocks with low risk scores so you can focus on businesses with fewer red flags on key risk metrics.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.