CVR Energy (CVI) has priced a US$1b private placement of senior unsecured notes maturing in 2031 and 2034, with proceeds earmarked to refinance its term loan and redeem existing 2028 and 2029 notes.

The refinancing news comes after a tough few months for the share price, with a 90 day share price return of a 37.7% decline and a 30 day share price return of a 9.7% decline, even though the 1 year total shareholder return is 20.2% and the 5 year total shareholder return is around 2.4x. This suggests long term holders have still seen meaningful gains while recent momentum has been weak.

If this kind of balance sheet reshaping has your attention, it may be a good moment to widen your search and look at aerospace and defense stocks as another pocket of opportunity.

With the stock down sharply over 3 months, yet still showing a 1 year total return above 20% and trading below the average analyst price target, you have to ask: is this a reset worth considering, or is the market already looking through to future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 17.8% Undervalued

At a last close of $22.74 versus a narrative fair value of about $27.67, the current pricing sits below what the most followed thesis implies.

With no additional turnarounds planned until 2027, CVR Energy can expect increased throughput and efficiency, positively impacting revenue and potentially improving net margins by reducing operational interruptions.

Want to see what kind of revenue profile and margin path needs to line up with that fair value? The narrative leans heavily on throughput, pricing and a punchy earnings multiple. Curious how those ingredients combine into a premium valuation story?

Result: Fair Value of $27.67 (UNDERVALUED)

However, you still need to weigh refinery downtime and regulatory swings around the Renewable Fuel Standard and RIN costs, which could pressure margins and cash generation.

Build Your Own CVR Energy Narrative

If you see the numbers differently, or prefer to test the assumptions yourself, you can shape a custom thesis in minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your CVR Energy research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.