Recent US policy shifts toward Venezuela have put Helmerich & Payne (HP) back in focus, as investors weigh what potential access to Venezuelan oil reserves and any recovery of seized rigs and unpaid invoices could mean for the stock.

The Venezuela headlines have arrived at a time when momentum in Helmerich & Payne’s share price has been picking up, with a 30 day share price return of 15.60% and a 90 day share price return of 40.11%. This is occurring even though the 1 year total shareholder return stands at a 6.86% decline and the 3 year total shareholder return at a 20.87% decline, while the 5 year total shareholder return is 56.45%.

If this kind of news driven move has your attention, it could be worth broadening your watchlist to include aerospace and defense stocks as another pocket of potential opportunities.

With the share price already sitting close to the latest analyst targets yet also showing a 41% intrinsic discount estimate, is Helmerich & Payne still cheap, or is the market already pricing in all the future upside?

Most Popular Narrative: 7% Overvalued

The most followed narrative pegs Helmerich & Payne’s fair value at about US$30.27 per share, a little below the recent US$32.38 close. This sets up a mild valuation gap to unpack.

The company's growing international footprint, highlighted by the successful KCA integration and new tender opportunities in Saudi Arabia and Argentina, positions H&P to capture incremental market share and expand EBITDA as geopolitical instability and supply concerns reinforce demand for high-spec rigs.

Curious how steady top line growth, rising margins and a higher future P/E all fit together here? The narrative leans on a tight mix of revenue assumptions, profitability shifts and valuation multiples that are anything but plain vanilla.

Result: Fair Value of $30.27 (OVERVALUED)

However, in the longer term, rig overcapacity and heavy reliance on U.S. shale activity could still squeeze day rates and margins, challenging the upbeat fair value story.

Another Angle On Value

While the most popular narrative sees Helmerich & Payne as about 7% overvalued, our DCF model points in a different direction. On that view, HP trades around 41% below an estimated fair value of roughly US$54.80, which frames today’s price as a much steeper discount. Which story do you think fits the risks and cash flows better?

Build Your Own Helmerich & Payne Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or want to stress test your own assumptions, you can spin up a personal thesis in a few minutes using Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Helmerich & Payne research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Helmerich & Payne has you thinking more broadly about opportunities, do not stop here. Widen your search now so you do not miss what else is out there.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.