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Bunge Global BG Q4 Margin Compression Reinforces Bearish Earnings Volatility Narratives
Bunge Global SA BG | 121.95 | -1.25% |
Bunge Global (BG) closed out FY 2025 with Q4 revenue of US$23.8b and basic EPS of US$0.49, alongside net income excluding extra items of US$95m, setting a clear snapshot of where the agribusiness giant stands heading into 2026. The company reported quarterly revenue increasing from US$13.5b in Q4 2024 to US$23.8b in Q4 2025, while basic EPS moved from US$4.36 to US$0.49 over the same period. This gives investors a very different earnings profile to weigh against revenue growth expectations. With trailing net margins at 1.2% compared to 2.1% a year earlier, this set of results puts profitability and margin resilience firmly in the spotlight for anyone following the story.
See our full analysis for Bunge Global.With the latest numbers on the table, the next step is to consider how this earnings picture lines up with the widely followed narratives around Bunge, and where those stories might need an update.
US$70.3b in sales, but only US$819m in net income
- Over the last twelve months, Bunge generated about US$70.3b of revenue and US$819m of net income excluding extra items. This works out to a trailing net margin of 1.2% compared with 2.1% a year earlier.
- What stands out for a bullish view that focuses on Bunge as a core food supplier is how thin that 1.2% margin looks against the scale of the business. Earnings have declined by 10.4% per year over five years, which limits the support that bulls might want from profit trends even with revenue forecast to grow around 15% per year.
EPS swings from US$10.10 to US$4.93 over twelve months
- Trailing twelve month basic EPS went from US$10.10 at 2025 Q2 to US$4.93 by 2025 Q4. Quarterly basic EPS within 2025 ranged from US$2.63 in Q2 down to US$0.49 in Q4, highlighting a wide earnings range across the year.
- Bears often focus on earnings volatility, and this pattern is consistent with that concern. EPS stepped down from US$1.50 in Q1 2025 to US$0.86 in Q3 and then US$0.49 in Q4, while trailing net margin stayed low at 1.2%. This gives critics plenty of support for the idea that recent profit levels have been under pressure even as revenue reached US$23.8b in Q4.
P/E of 27.7x with DCF fair value at US$521.70
- The shares trade on a P/E of 27.7x, which is lower than the 33.6x peer average but higher than the 21.6x US Food industry average. A DCF fair value of about US$521.70 sits well above the current US$117.23 share price.
- What challenges a bearish focus on valuation risk is that, even with earnings having declined by 10.4% per year over five years and the dividend yield of 2.39% not being well covered by free cash flow, the combination of a P/E below peers and a large gap between US$117.23 and the DCF fair value estimate suggests some investors may see room for upside if revenue does grow at the forecast 15% per year.
Next Steps
Don't just look at this quarter; the real story is in the long-term trend. We've done an in-depth analysis on Bunge Global's growth and its valuation to see if today's price is a bargain. Add the company to your watchlist or portfolio now so you don't miss the next big move.
See What Else Is Out There
Bunge Global's thin 1.2% net margin, weaker EPS and five year earnings decline highlight that profits have not kept pace with its sizeable revenue base.
If you want businesses where the earnings profile looks steadier, use CTA_SCREENER_STABLE_GROWTH to focus on companies with more consistent revenue and profit trends across different periods.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.


