CareDx (CDNA) has attracted fresh attention after issuing preliminary fourth quarter and full year 2025 guidance, flagging roughly $108 million in quarterly revenue and about $380 million for the year, with double digit year-over-year growth.

The guidance and recent ImmuneScape collaboration with 10x Genomics come after a strong 90 day share price return of 35.56%, although the 1 year total shareholder return sits at a 10.48% decline and the 3 year total shareholder return is 43.71%. This suggests momentum has picked up recently from a lower base.

If CareDx has you watching transplant focused diagnostics, it could also be a good time to scan other opportunities in healthcare stocks for ideas beyond a single stock.

With the shares up 35.56% over 90 days, yet still showing a 10.48% 1 year total return decline and a 78.74% 5 year total return decline, is CareDx undervalued today, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 11.7% Undervalued

The most followed narrative places CareDx's fair value at US$23 per share versus the last close of US$20.32, framing the recent rebound as only a partial catch up.

The fair value estimate has risen slightly from 21.83 dollars to 23.00 dollars per share, reflecting a modestly higher intrinsic value assessment.

The discount rate has increased slightly from 6.78 percent to about 7.08 percent, implying a marginally higher required return and risk assumption.

Curious what supports that higher fair value with a tougher discount rate and lower margin outlook baked in? The narrative leans on specific growth and earnings assumptions that may surprise you. Want to see which long term forecasts are doing the heavy lifting behind that US$23 figure?

The most popular narrative applies a 7.08% discount rate to future cash flows, assumes revenue keeps rising, and builds in slimmer long term profit margins but a richer future earnings multiple. Together, those inputs point to a fair value of US$23, which sits above the current price and implies the market is not fully aligning with those growth and profitability expectations yet.

Result: Fair Value of $23 (UNDERVALUED)

However, that upbeat story still leans on assumptions that could crack if reimbursement tightens, test volumes disappoint, or regulatory shifts hit AlloSure and HeartCare harder than expected.

Build Your Own CareDx Narrative

If you are not on board with this view or prefer to test the numbers yourself, you can build a custom thesis in minutes using Do it your way.

A great starting point for your CareDx research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If you are serious about building a stronger portfolio, do not stop at one company. Use targeted stock lists to spot opportunities others might skip past.

• Target potential mispricings by scanning these 886 undervalued stocks based on cash flows that may offer more compelling cash flow based opportunities than what is already on your watchlist.
• Tap into long term themes by checking out these 25 AI penny stocks that are tied to artificial intelligence and related growth stories.
• Strengthen your income focus by reviewing these 12 dividend stocks with yields > 3% that pair higher yields with the potential for more stable cash generation.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.