Last week, you might have seen that BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. (NASDAQ:BMRN) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.8% to US$51.86 in the past week. Things were not great overall, with a surprise (statutory) loss of US$0.16 per share on revenues of US$776m, even though the analysts had been expecting a profit. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from BioMarin Pharmaceutical's 25 analysts is for revenues of US$3.41b in 2026. This reflects a decent 10% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to surge 58% to US$4.28. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.45b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$4.44 in 2026. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at US$90.88, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on BioMarin Pharmaceutical, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$122 and the most bearish at US$55.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that BioMarin Pharmaceutical's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.0% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 22% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than BioMarin Pharmaceutical.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that BioMarin Pharmaceutical's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$90.88, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for BioMarin Pharmaceutical going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of BioMarin Pharmaceutical's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.