Third quarter results and guidance shift

Crane NXT (CXT) has drawn fresh attention after a third quarter in which revenue topped analyst expectations, with year-on-year gains led by the Security and Authentication Technologies segment.

The company also raised its full year sales guidance. At the same time, macroeconomic pressures on Crane Payment Innovations contributed to a narrowed Adjusted EPS range, giving investors a mixed but clearer picture of near term expectations.

Crane NXT’s recent guidance lift comes against a mixed trading backdrop, with a 1 month share price return of 4.6% and a 90 day share price decline of 21.9%. The 1 year total shareholder return is down 20.0%, suggesting short term momentum is tentative after a weaker stretch.

If this earnings update has you reassessing opportunities in industrial technology and automation, it could be a good moment to compare Crane NXT with fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With the shares down 20.0% over the past year, yet trading at about a 25% discount to one estimate of intrinsic value and roughly 52% below the average analyst price target, is this a buying opportunity, or is future growth already priced in?

Most Popular Narrative: 34.3% Undervalued

Crane NXT's most followed narrative sets fair value at $76.33 versus the last close of $50.14, framing a sizeable gap between price and projected worth.

Expansion and integration of Crane Authentication, driven by advanced anti-counterfeiting solutions (e.g., Fortress) and increased demand from global brands and governments, positions the company to capitalize on rising product authentication and cybersecurity needs, which is viewed as likely to translate into sustainable top-line growth and higher operating margins through operating synergies.

Curious what kind of revenue mix and margin profile would need to materialize to support that fair value and earnings ramp? The narrative leans on recurring authentication demand, rising profitability and a future earnings multiple that marks a clear shift from today. Want to see exactly how those pieces are expected to stack up over time?

Result: Fair Value of $76.33 (UNDERVALUED)

However, this hinges on cash and currency demand, as well as the smooth integration of acquisitions like Antares Vision, De La Rue and OpSec, where setbacks could quickly weaken that upside case.

Build Your Own Crane NXT Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or prefer to test your own assumptions, you can build a custom Crane NXT story in just a few minutes. To begin, start with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Crane NXT research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.