When you buy and hold a stock for the long term, you definitely want it to provide a positive return. Furthermore, you'd generally like to see the share price rise faster than the market. Unfortunately for shareholders, while the Harmonic Inc. (NASDAQ:HLIT) share price is up 37% in the last five years, that's less than the market return. Over the last twelve months the stock price has risen a very respectable 6.2%.

Since the stock has added US$65m to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During the last half decade, Harmonic became profitable. That's generally thought to be a genuine positive, so investors may expect to see an increasing share price. Since the company was unprofitable five years ago, but not three years ago, it's worth taking a look at the returns in the last three years, too. We can see that the Harmonic share price is down 21% in the last three years. Meanwhile, EPS is up 3.2% per year. It would appear there's a real mismatch between the increasing EPS and the share price, which has declined -8% a year for three years.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

It's good to see that there was some significant insider buying in the last three months. That's a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. This free interactive report on Harmonic's earnings, revenue and cash flow is a great place to start, if you want to investigate the stock further.

A Different Perspective

Harmonic shareholders are up 6.2% for the year. But that was short of the market average. If we look back over five years, the returns are even better, coming in at 6% per year for five years. It's quite possible the business continues to execute with prowess, even as the share price gains are slowing. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Take risks, for example - Harmonic has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: most of them are flying under the radar).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.