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Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE:HLF) Shares Fly 27% But Investors Aren't Buying For Growth
Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. HLF | 19.96 | +1.99% |
Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE:HLF) shares have continued their recent momentum with a 27% gain in the last month alone. The last month tops off a massive increase of 166% in the last year.
In spite of the firm bounce in price, Herbalife's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 5.6x might still make it look like a strong buy right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 20x and even P/E's above 35x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/E.
With earnings growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Herbalife has been doing relatively well. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, which has repressed the P/E. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the market for P/E ratios like Herbalife's to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 263% last year. However, the latest three year period hasn't been as great in aggregate as it didn't manage to provide any growth at all. Accordingly, shareholders probably wouldn't have been overly satisfied with the unstable medium-term growth rates.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to slump, contracting by 26% during the coming year according to the four analysts following the company. That's not great when the rest of the market is expected to grow by 16%.
In light of this, it's understandable that Herbalife's P/E would sit below the majority of other companies. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/E has reached a floor yet with earnings going in reverse. Even just maintaining these prices could be difficult to achieve as the weak outlook is weighing down the shares.
What We Can Learn From Herbalife's P/E?
Even after such a strong price move, Herbalife's P/E still trails the rest of the market significantly. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.
As we suspected, our examination of Herbalife's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. Unless these conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.
You always need to take note of risks, for example - Herbalife has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on Herbalife, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.


