It's been a pretty great week for SpringWorks Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:SWTX) shareholders, with its shares surging 10% to US$36.55 in the week since its latest third-quarter results. Revenues of US$49m fell short of estimates by 11%, but statutory losses were relatively mild, coming in 4.4% smaller than the analysts expected, at US$0.72 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from SpringWorks Therapeutics' six analysts is for revenues of US$373.7m in 2025. This would reflect a huge 176% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 53% to US$1.76. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$382.2m and losses of US$1.82 per share in 2025. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in analyst sentiment with the latest consensus release, given the upgrade to loss per share forecasts for next year.

There was no major change to the US$68.00average price target, suggesting that the adjustments to revenue and earnings are not expected to have a long-term impact on the business. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values SpringWorks Therapeutics at US$80.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$58.00. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that SpringWorks Therapeutics' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 125% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 52% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 22% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect SpringWorks Therapeutics to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that the analysts made no changes to their forecasts for a loss next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. With that said, earnings are more important to the long-term value of the business. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple SpringWorks Therapeutics analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.