• Earlier in December 2025, Morgan Stanley downgraded Archer-Daniels-Midland to Underweight after ADM cut its full-year EPS outlook to US$3.25–US$3.50 despite a third-quarter earnings beat and persistent weakness in its Crushing unit.
• At the same time, ADM extended its 94-year streak of uninterrupted quarterly dividends, underscoring its commitment to shareholder income even as it faces operational and regulatory headwinds.
• We’ll examine how the downgrade and ongoing Crushing unit challenges affect Archer-Daniels-Midland’s existing investment narrative and risk profile.

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Archer-Daniels-Midland Investment Narrative Recap

To own Archer-Daniels-Midland, you need to believe in its role as a global processor and trader of crops that underpins food, feed and biofuel supply chains. Morgan Stanley’s downgrade and ADM’s lower EPS outlook sharpen attention on near term earnings pressure in the Crushing unit, which is now the key risk to the story, while policy clarity around biofuels and Renewable Volume Obligations remains the most important short term catalyst. The downgrade itself does not fundamentally alter that setup.

Among recent announcements, the Q3 2025 earnings release and guidance cut are most relevant here. ADM reported a quarterly EPS beat but still reduced its full year EPS guidance to US$3.25 to US$3.50, reflecting weaker profitability in Crushing despite solid performance elsewhere. That contrast between headline results and lower expectations matters for investors watching how quickly core Ag Services & Oilseeds earnings can recover relative to policy timing and commodity margin trends.

Yet behind ADM’s long dividend streak, investors should be aware of how prolonged margin pressure in Ag Services & Oilseeds could...

Archer-Daniels-Midland’s narrative projects $88.6 billion revenue and $2.1 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 2.3% yearly revenue growth and about a $1.0 billion earnings increase from $1.1 billion today.

Uncover how Archer-Daniels-Midland's forecasts yield a $57.60 fair value, in line with its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Thirteen fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$31.64 to US$72.54 per share, showing how far apart individual views can be. When you set those opinions against ADM’s reduced earnings guidance and ongoing Crushing unit weakness, it underlines why testing your own expectations for future margins and policy risks really matters.

Explore 13 other fair value estimates on Archer-Daniels-Midland - why the stock might be worth as much as 24% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Archer-Daniels-Midland Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Archer-Daniels-Midland research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Archer-Daniels-Midland research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Archer-Daniels-Midland's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.