• In late January 2026, Waste Management reported Q4 2025 results that grew year over year but came in below analyst expectations on both revenue and adjusted EPS, while management outlined guidance calling for further operating EBITDA and free cash flow growth in 2026.
• At the same time, an update showed the company executed none of its recently announced share repurchase capacity, underscoring that current capital deployment is being directed toward operations and growth rather than buybacks.
• Next, we’ll assess how WM’s Q4 earnings miss alongside confident 2026 cash flow guidance may influence its existing investment narrative.

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Waste Management Investment Narrative Recap

To own Waste Management, you generally need to believe in the durability of its trash collection and disposal cash flows, supported by disciplined capital allocation. The Q4 2025 earnings miss, alongside reaffirmed 2026 EBITDA and free cash flow growth guidance, does not appear to materially change the near term focus on integration and execution, nor the key risk around elevated leverage following the Stericycle acquisition.

The most relevant recent announcement here is the late December 2025 update showing zero shares repurchased under the new US$3,000 million authorization. That choice, combined with the strong 14.5% dividend increase planned for 2026, reinforces that current cash generation is being prioritized for the core business and balance sheet rather than buybacks, which matters if leverage or regulatory driven costs were to tighten financial flexibility.

But investors should also be aware that if regulatory shifts or the Stericycle integration were to pressure margins and cash flows...

Waste Management's narrative projects $29.4 billion revenue and $4.0 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 7.0% yearly revenue growth and a roughly $1.3 billion earnings increase from $2.7 billion today.

Uncover how Waste Management's forecasts yield a $251.64 fair value, a 7% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Twelve members of the Simply Wall St Community currently estimate WM’s fair value between US$200 and about US$296, illustrating how far individual views can spread. When you set those opinions against the company’s higher leverage following the Stericycle acquisition, it underlines why many investors pay close attention to balance sheet risk alongside long term cash generation potential.

Explore 12 other fair value estimates on Waste Management - why the stock might be worth as much as 26% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Waste Management Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your Waste Management research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free Waste Management research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Waste Management's overall financial health at a glance.

No Opportunity In Waste Management?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.