ICF International (ICFI) just picked up a new contract that sits against a tougher backdrop, with analysts flagging a shrinking backlog and a projected revenue decline over the next year.

The new Pennsylvania contract lands at a time when the share price has climbed 15.61% over the last 90 days and 9.31% over the past month, even though the 1 year total shareholder return is a 20.29% loss, which suggests recent momentum has picked up after a weaker period for long term holders.

If this contract has you thinking about where else growth and contracts might be rewarded, it could be a good moment to look at fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

So with a shrinking backlog, an expected 3% revenue drop, a forward P/E of 13.6x, and a 28% intrinsic discount signal, is ICFI quietly undervalued here, or is the market already pricing in its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 14.3% Undervalued

ICF International's most followed narrative pegs fair value at $108.75 compared to a last close of $93.25, putting a spotlight on whether the recent contract flow justifies that gap.

Sequential improvements in procurement activity and a strong book-to-bill ratio (>1.3), together with a ramp-up in international contract wins, point to an accelerating backlog conversion and higher revenue visibility over the next 12 to 24 months.

Ongoing operating leverage from cost management, greater share of direct labor/higher-margin contracts, and transition toward more fixed-price and T&M awards is contributing to gross margin expansion and more resilient net margins as the business scales.

Curious how modest revenue growth assumptions, tighter margins, and a future earnings multiple come together to support that value gap? The full narrative spells out the cash flow path, the earnings glide path, and the pricing assumptions that underpin the $108.75 figure without assuming a break out growth story.

Result: Fair Value of $108.75 (UNDERVALUED)

However, there are still clear risks here, including federal funding cuts and slower backlog conversion, which could quickly challenge the current earnings and valuation story.

Build Your Own ICF International Narrative

If you see the story differently or would rather lean on your own work, you can pull up the same data and build a fresh narrative in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your ICF International research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.